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Tuesday, Oct 05, 2004

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Maharashtra polls: `Muslim' factor crucial in 30 seats

By Javed. M Ansari

BHIWANDI, OCT. 4. With less than 10 days for the Assembly polls, Maharashtra teeters on a political knife-edge. The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance believes this will be their moment of revenge for the "mistake" of May 2004, while the Congress-NCP-RCI combine fervently hopes that the State's largely "secular" character will redeem itself. Both political pundits and the man on the street agree on one thing: that this election will be a close call, whose fate may well be decided by the 30-odd constituencies in which Muslims play a dominant part.

From the backlanes of Bhiwandi and Nagpada to urbane Bandra, the "Muslim" factor is being hotly debated. And while there is no overwhelmingly unanimous reason why they are expected to vote en bloc, the fact is that this community, which accounts for about ten per cent of the votes in the State, is likely to once again pitch for the Congress-NCP-RCI alliance.

Key factors

Economic wellbeing and personal security clearly hold the key. Despite their disenchantment with the ruling Democratic Front Government on misuse of POTA and its local variant, MOCA, and the inescapable fact that a large number of communal riots took place during the Congress-NCP rule, many Muslims believe that changing political affinities comprise a far too difficult leap of faith.

"We want to look ahead, but it is very difficult to erase the past. Abhi zakham bhare nahin hai. [The wounds haven't healed as yet]," says 23-year-old Sheikh Ziauddin, who is a graduate and lives in Umerkhadi in the heart of Mumbai.

It is in areas such as Umerkhadi, Nagpada, Trombay, Bandra, and Khetwadi and in adjoining Bhiwandi that one discovers a discernible pattern. Many families are desperately poor, living cheek by jowl, ten to a room.

Disillusionment

Political activists in Bhiwandi such as Mohammed Khojani, who have been soliciting votes for the Congress for as long as he can remember, finds it difficult to hide his disillusionment. "I campaign in every election. But nothing has changed in the lives of the people here. There is no accommodation, no schools, no sanitation and no jobs. Who can blame them if the people stay away from the polling booths," he asks.

Interestingly though, in this midst of this grind and squalor, a small middle class seems to be emerging and many want to know how politics can help achieve their aspirations. They also realise that the fortunes of the Centre and the State are tied, that voting for the Congress coalition in the State will make it "easier" for the Congress coalition at the Centre to "help" out.

Bhiwandi's weavers

Bhiwandi looms large as a classic example. A textile town 60 km from Mumbai with a large Muslim population that is dependent for its "rozi-roti" on innumerable small and medium power looms, Bhiwandi supports a migrant population from all over India, especially from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Contrary to its image of a communal tinderbox, it is Bhiwandi's economy and not its politics, which is its driving force. The sprawling township's small but thriving middle class is clearly looking for a party which can keep the economy going. The Shinde Government's decision to remove excise duty on polyester oriented yarn, reduce power tariffs, waive interest on arrears has given them a fresh lease of life.

"The BJP- Sena kept promising they would do it but never did. The Shinde

Government actually went ahead and did it. It has been a life-saver," says

Shujauddin Ansari, a loom owner.

In Bandra, where 40 per cent of the population is Muslim, 34-year-old Ziaur Rahman, an executive in a private bank, echoes the thought. "After the Congress came back to power at the Centre, there is a sense of relief. All we want to do is to get on with our lives," he said.

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