The Hindu : Opinion / Leader Page Articles : NOT HOWARD'S END

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Monday, Oct 11, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

NOT HOWARD'S END

HAD THE IRAQ war been the only issue in the Australian general election, Prime Minister John Howard might well have lost his bid for another term. Most Australians opposed the decision to join the United States-led coalition in the invasion of Iraq. The United States President, George W. Bush, witnessed their anger first-hand when he visited Canberra last year and was greeted by the biggest protest demonstration in the country since the Vietnam War. Australia did not suffer any casualties — of 2,000 Australian troops who joined the coalition forces in invading Iraq, only about 350 remain in that country — and its people are all for friendly relations with the U.S. But they resent the manner in which their leader followed Mr. Bush into the war and believe it has turned the country into a potential target for terrorists, a fear heightened by last month's bombing outside the Australian Embassy in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. The 43 former defence chiefs and diplomatic officials who released a statement that their Government sent troops to Iraq under "false assumptions" were only articulating a widely held view. Prime Minister Howard's partners in the war — President Bush, who is facing an extremely tough presidential election, and the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, who will seek a second term for his Government next year — have been quick to congratulate their ally on his victory. But by no means is Mr. Howard's victory in last Saturday's election, which gave him and his conservative Liberal-National coalition a historic fourth term in office, an endorsement of his policy on Iraq.

The main issues in this election related to domestic policy and the state of the economy. Under Mr. Howard's watch, Australia has seen an extraordinary period of prosperity, with growth rates climbing and unemployment falling. He won the 2001 election with a strong chauvinistic campaign against asylum-seekers. But aware of the increasing public concern over such a stand and resentment over the Iraq war, the 64-year-old Liberal Party leader, known as Australia's shrewdest politician, kept his re-election campaign focussed on his Government's economic achievements. His opponent, the leader of the Labour Party, Mark Latham, suffered the drawback of being a newcomer trying to unseat an incumbent at a time of economic well-being. Both sides had competitive policies on education and health care, which were also significant issues in this election. But in a country where most people are in debt, the conservative coalition managed to play on fears that voting in Labour would lead to higher mortgage rates and taxes. In the end, the country decided to stick to the proverbial known devil, preferring continuity to change on economic issues. But boosted by his victory, the Prime Minister has signalled that there will be no change in his foreign policy: in his victory speech, he sought to vindicate his war alliance with the U.S. and Britain, with a reference to the holding of elections in Afghanistan.

Australia has opted for government change only thrice after the Second World War. It is a tribute to the dynamic leadership of the 41-year-old Labour leader that every opinion poll first gave Mr. Latham the lead over Mr. Howard and subsequently showed the contest as a dead heat. After seeming so close to winning these elections, Labour will be devastated by the fourth consecutive defeat, compounded by the loss of seats in traditional strongholds. But the party, and Mr. Latham personally, can take comfort from the fact that they gave Prime Minister Howard an extremely tough run — in fact, it was impossible to predict the winner until a few hours before the election — although the verdict ultimately went against them.

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