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Friday, Oct 15, 2004

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Leadership crisis in Maharashtra

By Kalpana Sharma

MUMBAI, OCT. 14 . Not one exit poll conducted yesterday after the end of polling for the Maharashtra Assembly has given a clear picture of what will emerge once votes are counted on October 16. The race between the two main contenders — the Congress-NCP and the Shiv Sena-BJP — is so close that neither is feeling completely confident of victory, regardless of their public posture. One thing, however, has become clear in the run-up to this election: the paucity of credible leaders at the State level.

The very fact that a news channel should corner the Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office, Prithviraj Chauhan, and ask him if he was a possible future Chief Minister of Maharashtra illustrates this crisis. Mr. Chauhan, of course, strongly denies any such possibility unless "ordered" by the high command to take up the job. But the fact that the Congress should have to range around for possible chief ministerial candidates suggests that the choice is extremely limited.

Apart from the incumbent, Sushilkumar Shinde, who is not certain of winning back the Solapur South seat and who has already begun indicating that he might want to shift back to the Centre, the Congress has the former Chief Minister, Vilasrao Deshmukh, and the Industry Minister, Patangrao Kadam, both Marathas, as possible candidates for the top job. The Union Home Minister, Shivraj Patil, is another name that has been doing the rounds particularly as there is some indication that the party high command is unhappy about his performance in his current post.

No public face

Apart from Mr. Shinde, no State Congress leader appeared as the public face of the party during the campaign. The only other person to campaign outside his constituency was Mr. Deshmukh. The party had to depend heavily on the drawing power of the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, to make an impact in the State.

Even in dealing with the media, it was the AICC general secretary, Margaret Alva, who carried the load. The Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee president, Prabha Rau, was often by her side but Ms. Alva fielded all the questions. A day before polling, the Congress press briefing had to be virtually rescued by the AICC observer and former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, Digvijay Singh.

Without a second rung

If the Congress faces this problem, its ally the Nationalist Congress Party is not much better off. There is only one leader who counts and that is Sharad Pawar. Mr. Pawar was the chief strategist and campaigner. Yet, he is clearly committed to remaining at the Centre. Where is the second rung of leaders? The former NCP Deputy Chief Minister, Chhagan Bhujbal, had to resign because of the Telgi scam. The man who replaced him, Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil, has potential but is not yet a big name in the State and neither is the Home Minister, R.R. Patil. There are few other names that can be conjured up.

Marginally different

The Bharatiya Janata Party is only marginally different. It has been the junior partner of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra ever since it formed an electoral alliance in 1995. But in the last decade, it has failed to throw up State-level leaders who would also have credibility at the national level.

The only name that comes up is that of the former Deputy Chief Minister, Gopinath Munde. And Pramod Mahajan, who ran the party's campaign during the elections and also campaigned extensively, does not have a popular following. In any case, he projects himself as a "national" leader of the BJP. So is the BJP facing a leadership crisis in the State?

Sena's problem

One might ask the same question of the Shiv Sena. While the ailing Bal Thackeray remains its main draw, and he has personally anointed his son Uddhav Thackeray as the executive president of the Sena, in fact there is no one who can be projected as number two. Mr. Uddhav Thackeray clearly lacks his father's charisma. The man who does display some of the same characteristics, his cousin Raj Thackeray, will not stick his neck out beyond a point for fear of annoying Thackeray senior. And below these two there is the former Chief Minister, Narayan Rane.

If the Sena-BJP combine comes to power, who will be the Chief Minister — Mr. Uddhav Thackeray, who has yet to win an election, or Mr. Rane, or someone with even less of a following than these two?

Thus, even as people in Maharashtra await the possibility of a "hung" Assembly and yet hope for a clear verdict, whatever the outcome, both alliances are likely to face serious leadership problems as and when they get around to government formation.

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