The Hindu : International : U.S. poll focus turns to battleground States

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Saturday, Oct 16, 2004

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International

U.S. poll focus turns to battleground States

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, OCT. 15. The U.S. President, George W Bush, and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, know one thing for sure: the debates are now a thing of the past and there is simply no use looking back.

Now it is literally a run in the tough battleground States that the two men are now all too familiar with.

Sparring on issues

Returning to the debate of Wednesday night, the candidates sparred on issues ranging from Iraq to homosexuality; flu vaccines and raising of minimum wages; health and medicare and the criticality of managing social security down the road.

And of course Iraq where Mr. Kerry did not forget to remind the nation that Mr. Bush bears a heavy responsibility for having taken the country down a misguided war for which America is paying very dearly, in human and material costs.

At least two instant polls after the debate have shown Mr. Kerry coming away ahead and in very comfortable margins.

A divided country

But as in the case with the two other previous debates and the vice-presidential encounter thrown in, political analysts are reminding the audience not to read too much into the debates per se or for that matter at the surveys themselves that do not reflect the impact of the debate on voting.

The bottomline still is that this is a deeply divided country and the only poll that is going to matter is that of November 2 when voters head to the booths.

There is simply no question of the fact that Mr. Bush and his administration are on the defensive; and it is not just on Iraq but on such critical subjects as the war on terrorism and economic issues.

But pundits have long asked this question: does dissatisfaction with Mr. Bush mean the voters are ready to bring in Mr. Kerry. The emphasis here seems to be that there is still the hesitation of replacing one with the other on November 2.

But the Kerry campaign is undoubtedly taking comfort in the fact that the approval rating for their candidate on such key issues as terrorism, on being presidential and leadership questions is on the rise and the gap with Mr. Bush is narrowing.

For instance no longer does Mr. Bush have the luxury of getting top scores in the fight against terror.

The Democrats have successfully made the argument — and they hope that this will stick for another three weeks — that by taking the war route in Iraq and creating a mess out there Mr. Bush has actually taken his eyes off terrorism and Osama bin Laden.

Mr. Kerry returned to this theme on Wednesday.

There were several questions that the candidates took on directly or tried to evade but two instances come to mind and ones that really reflect how this election is being perceived even from within the campaign trail. Perhaps for the first time in many, many years foreign policy is playing a critical role and with this in mind Mr. Kerry sought to dispel the notion — drummed up by the opposite camp — that the parameters of his "global test' meant that American national security policies are going to be decided in the hallways of Europe or anywhere else.

Race far from over

Second, many are convinced that the choice is going to be decided by that `middle' group. To this effect Mr. Kerry mentioned the name of Senator John McCain, not once but twice.

It was simply too much for Mr. Bush to take this quietly. "John McCain is for me for President," Mr. Bush shot back.

This race is far from over and the themes bandied about by the candidates in the three debates are going to be heard repeatedly.

And this race, to some degree of surprise, is also keeping the focus on some of the States that Democrats or Republicans won in 2000.

But it is the battleground — some 15 in all generally and perhaps five or so intensely — that is going to make or break this election.

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