Thursday, Oct 21, 2004
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By P. S. Suryanarayana
HANOI, OCT. 20. The removal of General Khin Nyunt as Myanmar's Prime Minister is widely viewed in the diplomatic circles as a decisive step that may have helped the strongman of the ruling military junta, Senior General Than Shwe, consolidate his power base. Sr. Gen. Than Shwe, regarded by Western diplomats as an orthodox military dictator, is also known to be the architect of Myanmar's close strategic links with China and of Yangon's moves to strike a sound working relationship with India. Diplomatic sources in Yangon, contacted by The Hindu over phone, indicated that there were no outward signs of any political disturbances in Yangon. Even after the military government formally announced that Gen. Khin Nyunt had been `retired' on health grounds, there were no indications of any political unrest. Siginificantly, no clams of a coup attempt or counter-claims about the quelling of any such attempt were made by any of the players involved in Yangon. While very little is still known of what really happened behind the bamboo curtain of the SPDC, Myanmar-watchers in Bangkok point out that Gen. Khin Nyunt's successor, Lt. Gen. Soe Win, was the chief SPDC functionary behind the disturbances that led to the celebrated democracy campaigner, Aung San Suu Kyi's arrest last year. The arrest was made on the ground that clashes had broken out between her supporters in the National League for Democracy and some pro-SPDC activists. It is suspected that Lt. Gen. Soe Win would have played that role only with the knowledge, or even at the behest, of Sr. Gen. Than Shwe. This perspective is related to the Western assessment that Gen. Khin Nyunt, who was also the chief of Military Intelligence, was the best bet, in a situation of tight military control, for any gradual political changes in Yangon towards democracy. Speculation is still rife in these circles that some show of military force, on behalf of Sr. Gen. Than Shwe, might have preceded Gen. Khin Nyunt's dismissal. There has so far been no confirmation of any armed showdown in the run-up to the change of Prime Minister in Yangon on Tuesday.
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