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Sunday, Oct 31, 2004

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Arabs hope Bush goes

Though most Arabs prefer Mr. Kerry to Mr. Bush, many of them expect little change in the U.S. policy towards the region, says Atul Aneja.

DISMAYED BY the Bush administration's approach on Iraq, the Israel-Palestinian conflict, and civil liberties, the Arab world is hoping for change. John Kerry is the favoured one, notwithstanding his lack of clarity on a host of issues.

In an opinion poll conducted by Cairo's Al Ahram weekly, 51 per cent of the respondents wanted Mr. Kerry to win. Only 12 per cent backed Mr. Bush; five per cent supported the independent candidate, Ralph Nader. Significantly, 32 per cent of those polled chose none of the three, underscoring the deep distrust of the U.S.

Asked to comment on Mr. Kerry, the typical response was that in comparison to George W. Bush, he appeared "more rational." The verdict on Mr. Bush was more definitive, with 90 per cent of the respondents rejecting him. Many said the President was a `Crusader,' intent on engulfing the region in a religious war.

Three issues

Three key issues appear to have undermined Mr. Bush's popularity. First is the U.S. occupation of Iraq. The images of American tanks on the streets of Baghdad, American warplanes demolishing houses in Fallujah, and the agony of survivors battling for life in under-equipped hospitals — all shown on Arab satellite television channels — have given rise to deep resentment.

In Arab intellectual circles, the inability of the U.S. to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and the recent admission by senior Bush administration functionaries that they had no evidence of Saddam Hussein's links with Al-Qaeda, have further inflamed the anger against Mr. Bush and his neo-conservative allies.

While the Arab world has always opposed Washington's one-sided support to Israel, Mr. Bush's excessive leaning towards it has been singled out. An article on the popular website, Islam Online, points out: "It [Israel] is the highest recipient of U.S. aid, and can be considered the spearhead of America's imperial project in West Asia. Under George W. Bush, U.S. policy has shifted from a `special relationship' with Israel to an all-encompassing embrace of Israeli policy."

Mr. Bush's wholehearted support for the U.S. Patriot Act has also increased Mr. Kerry's appeal in the region. According to Al Jazeera, it is feared that the law, which gives enforcement authorities expansive new surveillance powers with little judicial oversight, is being used against people of Arab descent.

The U.S. President's decision to shut down Islamic charities on suspicion that they were involved in funding terrorism has also reinforced the demand for change.

A belief that individual Presidents can make little difference to the U.S. policy in the region has made a large percentage of Arabs indifferent to the presidential polls.

They believe that the American policy will be determined by the beliefs that Israel's security and its military superiority have to be maintained, a steady flow of oil at reasonable prices has to be secured, and radical elements that threaten the status quo have to be fought.

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