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Friday, Nov 19, 2004

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Polls in Palestine

By Atul Aneja

Elections are likely to be the key to stability and unity inside the Palestinian territories.

NOTWITHSTANDING THE trauma of the death of Yasser Arafat, Palestinians have taken important steps to usher in a smooth political transition. On November 11, former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas became the new chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), while Parliament Speaker Rawih Fattouh emerged as the President of the Palestinian Authority. Under the Palestinian basic law, he will hold office for 60 days during which time elections should be held. Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei has also emerged stronger with his powers in the financial and the security domain enhanced.

"We can be certain transition will be smooth, and the Palestinian people deserve to have free and fair elections," Palestinian Cabinet Minister Saeb Erekat was quoted as saying.

In a hall filled with council members, along with Mr. Abbas, Mr. Qurei and foreign envoys to the PA, Mr. Fattouh pledged allegiance to his new post in front of the president of the Palestinian National Council, Salim Zaanoun, and Palestinian Supreme Court President, Zuheir Surani. Mr. Fattouh tearfully declared that the PA would follow in Arafat's footsteps and abide by his political principles.

Apart from the PLO and the PA, the Fatah, which represents the mainstream Palestinian national movement, also has a new head.

Farouk Kaddoumi, the Tunis based chief of PLO's political department, is the new Fatah chief. A man of strong views, Mr. Kaddoumi was among the few mainstream Palestinian leaders who rejected the Oslo accords — the foundation of a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal. In 1994, he declined to set foot on the Palestinian territories, when Arafat decided to move his entourage there from Tunis. Mr. Kaddoumi is known to have developed extensive contacts abroad.

Last Thursday, Mr. Kaddoumi after being appointed head of Fatah reminded Palestinians of the relevance of resistance to achieve political objectives. "Resistance is the path to arriving at a political settlement," he told Lebanon-based Al-Manar TV station. "We are not saying we are capable of defeating the Israeli army. But this policy was set out by the PLO when the martyr, our brother Abu Ammar [Yasser Arafat], stood before the United Nations in 1974 and said `I hold a rifle in one hand and an olive branch in the other. Don't knock the olive branch from my hand'..."

Mr. Kaddoumi is likely to play a significant role in the internal political debate, in case the United States administration re-engages the new Palestinian leadership.

In seeking to consolidate its position, the emerging leadership would have to seek ways to accommodate popular Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti in the new political dispensation. An opinion poll in September conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Survey and Research showed that Mr. Barghouti was only next to Mr. Arafat in terms of popularity.

Mr. Barghouti, however, is in an Israeli jail and, it remains to be seen how his political rehabilitation from there can re-start.

It is unlikely that individuals such as Mohammad Dahlan, Mr. Arafat's former security adviser, who have considerable influence in the Gaza's preventive security establishment, will create difficulties for the new Palestinian establishment. In fact, he has opted out of the race.

While militant groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which have opposed the Oslo accords and stand committed to the destruction of Israel, have called for unity among Palestinians, it is they who can pose a serious challenge to the authority of the mainstream Palestinian institutions. At this juncture, both these groups have called for evolving a mechanism of "joint" leadership in which they can play a part.

The Palestinian Prime Minister in a meeting in Gaza with 13 political organisations including the Hamas and Islamic Jihad has agreed to discuss the proposal, but has not made any commitment. Hamas has now indicated that it will not participate in the presidential election. Elections are likely to be the key to long term political stability as well as unity inside the Palestinian territories.

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