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Friday, Nov 19, 2004

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BIHAR BASICS

BUOYED BY THE vote of confidence it secured from its allies in the National Democratic Alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party has set its eyes on Bihar. For the BJP, the upcoming State election is a test it cannot afford to fail: only a visibly impressive performance, such as a victory fought and won against Lalu Prasad, can offset the party's recent humiliations — two major electoral defeats (in the 14th general election and in Maharashtra) followed by the public exhibition of its inner-party quarrels. Indeed, among all parties, the stakes are the highest for the BJP and Janata Dal(U) in Bihar. The Rashtriya Janata Dal president is looking to win a third term while the Congress is on a high after its recent electoral victories. At the same time it is clear that the BJP-JD (U) combination is far from being in a position to take on the Bihar strongman. Hence the BJP alliance's energetic wooing of the Lok Janashakti Party (LJSP) leader, Ram Vilas Paswan. Not long ago, the Dalit leader and the JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar were sworn enemies, and understandably so because both nurtured Chief Ministerial ambitions. However, such was the impact of Mr. Paswan's exit from the NDA and his subsequent defection to the RJD-Congress alliance that today Mr. Kumar has virtually no option other than to go with a begging bowl to his erstwhile foe. The desperate state of affairs in the NDA camp can be judged by Mr. Kumar's invitation to Mr. Paswan to head the Opposition alliance in Bihar. The BJP too has since seconded Mr. Kumar's proposal, evidently seeing Mr. Paswan's cooption as the only way out of a seemingly impossible situation.

It is clear from the results of the 2004 general election that the NDA is up against a statistical impracticability. The RJD-LJSP-Congress alliance swept the polls bagging 26 seats and polling 45 per cent of the votes polled. Pitted against this formidable team, the NDA could manage only 11 seats and a vote share of 37 per cent. The Prasad-Paswan combination in particular worked magic at the hustings. In an analysis published in The Hindu , the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies contended that the RJD benefited from Mr. Paswan's coming to the extent of five percentage points. Not only that, vote transfer between the RJD and the LJSP was the best among all partners, including the RJD and the Congress, and the BJP and the JD(U). To quote from the CSDS analysis: "Among those identified as RJD supporters, 89 per cent, and among those identified as LJSP supporters, 88 per cent confirmed voting for the RJD alliance."

Mr. Kumar and the NDA appear to be banking on Mr. Paswan's current troubles with the RJD chief. Yet there are no permanent enemies or friends in politics. It must please Mr. Paswan that the NDA has offered to project him as its Chief Ministerial candidate. But equally Mr. Paswan must know that it is an option not easily exercised, especially given the circumstances of his exit from the Vajpayee Cabinet — he left citing Gujarat — and the NDA's recent endorsement of the BJP line on Ayodhya. Besides, the upper castes are not as effective in transferring votes as the OBCs (Other Backward Classes). On the other hand, the Dalit leader holds a key ministerial portfolio in a Government that wears its secular credentials on its sleeve. Perhaps that is why Mr. Paswan's condition for teaming up with the JD(U) is that the party first sever its ties with the BJP. The LJSP chief is on record saying he wants to make the fight secular on both sides. Mr Paswan has another reason not to be swayed by the NDA offer: after its recent electoral routs, the alliance has the look of a loser.

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