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JUST AS POWER brings together parties with conflicting interests, the apprehension of losing power breaks up seemingly well-sewn political alliances. The differences developing between the Congress and the Kerala Congress (M) over filling a Rajya Sabha vacancy are symptomatic of the power struggle within the United Democratic Front after the drubbing it received in the 14th general election. The vacancy arose following the death of the Communist Party of India leader, V.V. Raghavan, but given the numbers in the Kerala Assembly, any UDF nominee can be sure of victory. As the seat was not held by any of the UDF constituents, theoretically any of them could stake a claim for the seat. However, in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha elections the Congress has, in practice, an undisputed advantage over its junior partners. Given their localised support bases and region-specific political stakes, the smaller parties will be only too keen to trade off a possible role at the national level for a bigger share in power at the State level. In the past the KC(M) and other partners in the UDF have accommodated the claims of the Congress in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha elections in return for a greater share of the pie at the State level. As the KC(M) leader, K.M. Mani, has pointed out, on earlier occasions his party gave up its claim for a seat in Parliament to accommodate one or the other of the two senior Congress leaders of the State, K. Karunakaran and A.K. Antony. For the Congress, this casual vacancy in the Rajya Sabha is important because it feels obliged to accommodate the former Chief Minister, Mr. Antony, who quit office after owning moral responsibility for the party's unprecedented washout in the Lok Sabha election. It is in the Congress culture to find some post or the other for senior leaders who have had to relinquish office in their home State. As in the case of Sushilkumar Shinde, who was appointed the Governor of Andhra Pradesh after losing the race for Chief Ministership to Vilasrao Deshmukh, Mr. Antony will have to be given some position at the Centre. Unlike Mr. Shinde, Mr. Antony is too young to be pushed into retirement from active politics by giving him a gubernatorial post. The alternative is to make him a Minister at the Centre and for this, he will have to become a Member of Parliament. Irrespective of how this power struggle within the ruling alliance plays out, the writing is on the wall for the UDF. Even if the KC(M) gives up its claim, it will do so only in return for some gains at the State level. The KC(M), which like the Congress was unable to retain even traditional strongholds during the Lok Sabha election, faces pressure from its cadre to wrest as many concessions as possible from the Congress and not give in without a fight. Although Mr. Mani says the matter will be sorted out without the involvement of the other partners of the UDF, this is not going to be simple. Depending on how the Congress handles the present challenge from the KC(M), other junior partners will manoeuvre to increase their leverage within the UDF. Another Kerala Congress group led by Balakrishna Pillai, which supports the dissident leader, Mr. Karunakaran, is nursing old wounds. In the run-up to the 2006 Assembly election, tensions within the UDF are likely to increase manifold.
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