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Friday, Nov 26, 2004

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SLOW AND STEADY

IF THERE IS a single phenomenon which seems to disprove the Heraclitean dictum that one cannot step twice into the same river ("for other waters are continually flowing in"), it is that somewhat intermittent diplomatic ritual known as the India-Pakistan summit. As a device, the summit has served exceedingly well the cause of kick-starting the process of dialogue when none existed or when doubts about its sustainability crept in. The meetings on January 6 and September 24 this year are examples of this. But when the two sides actually start talking, as they have been since this summer, they somehow seem to lack the ability to transcend even the relatively minor roadblocks of the past. Thus, if Wednesday's meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart, Shaukat Aziz, broke no new ground, it would be unfair to blame the two principals or their aides for this. So entrenched are the stated positions and approaches of the two countries to their outstanding problems, including Kashmir, and so wide is the "trust deficit," that even small shifts can occur only after they have been thoroughly worked on at the official level. Barely a year into the freshly launched composite dialogue process, neither India nor Pakistan is in a position to change tack. Not yet, at any rate.

During Prime Minister Aziz's interactions in New Delhi, it became clear that the Pakistani establishment remains suspicious of India's "bottom-up" approach to building trust though confidence-building measures. Mr. Aziz sees in these CBMs an attempt by New Delhi to "cherrypick" issues. India, on its part, is wary of walking into what it senses is a trap laid by President Pervez Musharraf's new-found enthusiasm for thinking "out of the box" on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. Prime Minister Singh emphasised India's red lines — no change in the country's borders and no communal partitioning of the territory of Jammu and Kashmir — but he wisely chose not to spell out any alternative scenario. Despite his impatience with India, General Musharraf knows that even out-of-the-box thinking has its limitations: no matter how bold or innovative any proposal or approach might be, it would be foolhardy to try and hurry the process of settling a problem that has festered for more than 50 years. That is why Mr. Aziz was right in saying that India-Pakistan summits are not transactions, they are part of a process.

It is in the logic of this process that Pakistan ought to consider carefully the suggestion that CBMs be allowed to proceed apace, even as the debate on a Kashmir settlement gathers momentum. Mr. Aziz said he supported CBMs that are "win-win" but the proposals that fall in this category go far beyond the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. India too should approach the pipeline with an open mind. Above all, the two countries must avoid falling into the trap of being suspicious of specific proposals just because the other side has mooted them first. As for Kashmir, the gulf remains as wide as ever but there is recognition by both sides that something must be done to narrow it. Even if acknowledging that a problem exists is not the same as finding a solution to it, the change in mindset that has occurred is in itself a step forward. Of course, the peoples of India and Pakistan have the right to expect more. The second round of composite dialogue begins next month and that is when the sincerity of each side on the range of issues involved will be tested. For the sake of the sustainability of the dialogue process, the two sides must strive for tangible breakthroughs in at least some of the areas.

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