Sunday, Nov 28, 2004
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By Atul Aneja
MANAMA, NOV. 27. The call for the postponement of elections in Iraq is gathering momentum with the party of the interim Prime Minister, Iyad Allawi, deciding to join 17 other parties that are demanding that the January polls should be deferred. Mr. Allawi's Iraqi National Accord joined the original signatories to a list, which included the two main Kurdish parties and a party led by the former presidential candidate, Adnan Pachachi, an influential Sunni leader. "It is unthinkable that a large and important section of Iraqi society be left out of the political process," Mr. Pachachi told a press conference at his Baghdad home on Saturday. The signatories want elections delayed by six months because of the persisting violence, which, they say, would undermine the conduct of a credible poll.
`Complicated issue'
Iraq's Electoral Commission has said it would consider a request for the postponement, but added that it was a "very complicated question". Analysts point out that a decision on a possible postponement was likely to depend on three key factors. First, the majority Shia community, which comprises more than 60 per cent of Iraq's population, would have to agree to the proposal. So far, the top Shia spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has backed the elections, which are likely to bring his followers to power. Acknowledging that Shia endorsement would be vital, Mr. Pachachi said it was too early to say whether the response to the request for a postponement would be positive. Mr. Pachachi, however, pointed out that the Shias had only agreed in principle to the conduct of the polls. Ayatollah Sistani, he stressed, was committed to the elections but not to the date itself. Besides, he said elections without the participation of the Sunnis would not serve the long-term interest of the Shias. "It is in their interests that the elections be transparent and that all Iraqis take part," he said. "Otherwise, it will not be in their interests and the situation will get worse." Second, there was still no clarity about the procedures that might allow the polls to be delayed. The Electoral Commission today said it did not have the legislative power to take a decision to postpone the elections on its own. Mr. Pachachi said a decision on putting off the polls would be taken after talks with the United Nations and the Electoral Commission, which he said had a copy of the petition requesting a delay.
U.S. holds the key
Third, the American disposition would influence the outcome significantly. The U.S. President, George Bush, has said that he hoped "they (elections) would go forward in January". Observers point out that non-participation by Sunnis could create divisions among Iraqis on sectarian lines. Sunnis reportedly feel alienated after the U.S. military operations in their stronghold of Fallujah. There are also signs that the U.S. would mount military operations in the city of Mosul. Sunnis in large numbers reside along the west bank of the Tigris river, which passes through the city, while the Kurds dominate the area along the eastern bank.
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