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Consolidating post-1988 gains in Sino-Indian ties

By N. Ram

VIENTIANE, NOV. 30. Sixty-two-year-old Wen Jiabao is part of a new generation of leaders — headed by Hu Jintao — that has, in a smooth process of transition, taken charge of the affairs of both party and state. A member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China's Political Bureau, Mr. Wen became Premier of the State Council at the same time Mr. Hu, who had already succeeded Jiang Zemin as party general secretary, became President, that is, March 2003. This was just ahead of the Vajpayee visit to China. A geologist and engineering by training, Mr. Wen joined the party in 1965, a year after Mr. Hu did.

Like his predecessor in office, the highly respected Zhu Rongji, Premier Wen has the responsibility of overseeing economic reforms. He is reputed to be a strong administrator who gets things done once decisions are taken.

During Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's 40-minute meeting with the Chinese Premier in Vientiane, the Indian side found that Mr. Wen had "a certain background about Sino-Indian relations." After all, he had interacted substantively with Atal Bihari Vajpayee during his six-day visit in June 2003, especially on the parallel issues of Tibet and Sikkim, and on the breakthrough decision to appoint "special representatives" to work out the contours of a political solution to the boundary question. He had overseen the conclusion of as many as 10 agreements plus a bilateral Declaration on Principles for Relations and Comprehensive Cooperation.

In the Vientiane meeting today, Mr. Wen noted with satisfaction "the continuity [in India] of a general positive orientation" towards Sino-Indian relations. Adopting the long historical view, he remarked that over nearly 2000 years of interaction between the two countries, relations were "good 99.99 per cent of the time" while "there may have been aberrations 0.1 per cent of the time." He joked that he had reminded George Fernandes of this historical fact when he visited China as Defence Minister [in April 2003].

The breakthrough event for Sino-Indian political relations was Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's five-day visit to China in December 1988. Following an extremely warm meeting with helmsman Deng Xiaoping, it resulted in a decision to set up a Joint Working Group with the twin mandate of ensuring peace and tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and working on a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement of the boundary question. The two countries followed this up with two major agreements signed in 1993 and 1996: the first was the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas, the second the Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field along the LAC.

The Declaration signed during Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit in June 2003 consolidated the progress but also broke new ground by providing for a high-powered "special representative" on each side who was charged with the task of exploring "from the political perspective of the overall bilateral relationship the framework of a boundary settlement." Of the four rounds of special representative talks that have taken place, two each have been conducted from the Indian side by Brajesh Mishra and J.N. Dixit, both National Security Advisers and designated special representatives. On the Chinese side, the special representative for all four rounds of talks has been Executive Vice-Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo. The "general principles" for the resolution of the boundary question are clearly identifiable, although they have not yet been settled. The sense on both sides is that given the new 2003-2004 commitment at the top leadership levels, a political breakthrough on this question could come sooner than conventionally predicted.

In a deeper sense, taking into account ground realities means moving from a grudging and then de facto acknowledgement of existing political realities to a formal recognition. During the Vajpayee visit, significant and linked or quid pro quo gains were made on the issues of Tibet and Sikkim. Moving away from the traditional formulation that the Government of India's position was that "Tibet is an autonomous region of China," India for the first time since Independence conceded officially that Tibet was part of the territory of China. To quote from the 2003 Declaration: "The Indian Government recognises that the Tibet Autonomous Region is part of the territory of the People's Republic of China and reiterates that it does not allow Tibetans to engage in anti-China political activities in India." The Chinese side highly appreciated this nuanced change in position.

In turn, starting with the agreement to open an additional point of trade on the India-China border, the Chinese Government has moved towards an implicit or de facto recognition of Sikkim as part of Indian territory.

Significantly, in contrast to his predecessors, this Chinese Premier did not need to raise the Tibet issue or register any "concern" over possible anti-China political activities in India by the Dalai Lama and his followers. When Dr. Singh expressed the hope that the Chinese Government would complete the process of acknowledging Sikkim as part of India, Mr. Wen responded: "A decision has already been taken. We will certainly gradually implement the decision."

Another set of parallel issues, Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, remains in formal dispute. It waits for a similar political initiative on the basis of mutual understanding and mutual accommodation.

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