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Monday, Dec 20, 2004

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Palestine after Arafat

By Atul Aneja

Most Palestinians appear to have concluded that their struggle for a homeland needs a new direction.

ARRIVING AHEAD of schedule, winter rains have begun lashing Ramallah, seat of the Palestinian Authority. On most days, a thin layer of mist hangs around Yasser Arafat's grave, where a Palestinian guard keeps a 24-hour vigil. People are still pouring in to pay their respects to the leader, who died in a Paris hospital last month. While Arafat's death is still fresh on their minds, Palestinians are, nevertheless, taking a hard look at their future. Most appear to have concluded that their struggle for a homeland needs a new direction.

Two key objectives have to be met. First, Israel should be made to understand that it is not in its interest to subject Palestinians to collective punishment. Israel has met suicide bombings, and even lesser attacks with demolition of houses. It has raised a network of checkpoints in the West Bank and Gaza, in order to severely restrict the free movement of Palestinian people and goods. A new "security wall" is being raised, which has begun to separate people from their land. Many believe that the 622 km-long barrier will deny Palestinians access to the West Bank's water resources.

Secondly, it has become evident that a constructive process that would hasten the creation of an independent Palestinian State should begin urgently. "We desperately need peace. It is necessary to secure the survival of our most vulnerable communities. For that, the old ways have to be altered," Ismail Daiq, the head of the Agricultural Development Association, a Palestinian NGO working with West Bank farmers, said in a conversation with The Hindu recently.

Dr. Daiq pointed out that the second Intifada, or armed uprising, which began in 2000 had not brought in the desired results. On the contrary, suicide bombings, witnessed in recent years, targeting Israeli civilians, had proved counterproductive. "It gave the Israelis a pretext to brand Palestinians as terrorists. Once this was done, it was easy for them to begin isolating us in Bantustans under the garb of security. The net result is that the Israeli occupation inside the Palestinian territories has been reinforced in the last four years." Claiming that it was responding to militant attacks, Israel took up the construction of the West Bank wall, and embarked on a project whose aims extended far beyond the reinforcement of security.

Hydrologists like Abdel Rahman Al Tamimi of the Palestinian Hydrology Group point out that the path taken by the wall in the north cuts off Palestinian access to the groundwater in the western aquifer, the largest source of water after the Jordan river. In his view, the construction of the northern wall is the culmination of a strategy to monopolise the waters of the western aquifer. The upstream segment of the western aquifer is in the West Bank, while the downstream section is in Israel.

Shortly after the 1967 occupation of Gaza and West Bank, the Israelis effectively banned Palestinians from drilling new wells in the aquifer, fearing that such a practice would reduce availability of water in Israel. But the construction of the wall has also denied Palestinians access to 50 wells, which were dug prior to the war. Dr. Daiq explains that by setting aside the water resources of the western aquifer behind the wall, the barrier has seriously undermined the possibility of reviving West Bank agriculture, on which nearly 25 per cent of the population is dependent.

The imposition of closures by Israel has had a devastating effect on the Palestinian economy. According to a recent World Bank report, closures — a complex system of restrictions on the movement of Palestinian people and goods — have been the chief cause of the Palestinian economic decline. After four years of conflict, average Palestinian incomes have fallen by more than one-third, while 25 per cent of the working population has become unemployed. Out of a total population of around 34 lakhs, nearly six lakh Palestinians cannot afford the basic necessities. Detailing the nature of the closures, the United Nations office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported in a January 2004 study that there were 59 checkpoints within the West Bank, 10 partial checkpoints, 479 earth mounds, 75 trenches, 100 road blocks and 40 road gates — all meant for restricting the free movement of Palestinians.

Advocating an alternative approach, Terry Balata, a young political activist, says Palestinians should pursue the path of "popular resistance" based essentially on the concept of peaceful agitation, rather than violence. "We need to regain the moral high ground. For us, the first Intifada of 1987, which was essentially peaceful and successful, is the benchmark. Our struggle should take off from there," she told The Hindu .

Ms. Balata is one of the prominent leaders behind the Palestinian Campaign for Freedom and Peace who has been inspired by the April visit of Arun Gandhi, Mahatma Gandhi's grandson, to the Palestinian territories. This group hopes to train a thousand activists in the techniques of passive resistance, and is emphasising the involvement of women in popular protests. "Violent actions do not attract women, the old and children. With peaceful means of resistance, we can secure a guarantee of participation of large masses from all sections of society," says Ms. Balata. Her group will stay away from extremist militant organisations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, she adds. But a conscious effort would be made to reach out to the Israeli peace camp, as well as other political and community leaders.

With Arafat's departure, the search for a new leadership within the Palestinian political mainstream is gathering momentum. "Only fresh elections to all our political bodies can bring the desired result ... we will emerge stronger," Hafez Barghouti, Editor-in-Chief, Al-Hayat Al-Jadidah, a leading Palestinian daily, says. While many in the Palestinian intelligentsia maintain that a successful political transition would mean opening up senior positions to a new generation of leaders, some are of the view that this alone may not be enough.

Ahmed Harb, who teaches at the Bir Zeit University in Ramallah, believes that the basic political fault-line among Palestinians lies between those leaders who were based in Tunis but landed with Arafat in the Palestinian territories in 1994, and other "indigenous" leaders who gained prominence because of their activism at the grassroots level. "You might find not only new generation activists but also older people who were always in the territories questioning members of Arafat's entourage which came from Tunis." The disequilibrium in representation is visible most prominently within Fatah — the umbrella organisation that represents the mainstream Palestinian national movement. Of the 14 members of Fatah's central committee, there is only one member who was not part of the Tunis leadership. Marwan Barghouti, who initially planned to challenge Mahmoud Abbas to the post of Presidency in the January 9 elections, but has since dropped out, is among those who did not step abroad but achieved prominence because of his role inside the territories.

Aware of the challenges ahead, Palestinian leaders stress the need for internal elections to revitalise their own institutions, apart from throwing open key Palestinian bodies for polls. Once the democratic exercise takes root, it will open the space for positive external intervention, they argue. Many Palestinian leaders, therefore, believe that once they can demonstrate their commitment to democracy, the European Union as well as the United States will pressure Israel into fruitful negotiations.

While stressing on elections, mainstream Palestinian leaders are also contending with the increase in influence of groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. "The Hamas would have to make a choice. Either it slides into an Al-Qaeda style organisation or pursues the model of Turkey where a moderate party with Islamic roots is governing the country," Ahmed Soboh, former information adviser to Arafat and a deputy minister, says. The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) was ready to take Hamas within its fold, provided the organisation changed its course, he points out.

The Hamas, on its part, is beginning to lay stress on its political, rather than military, profile in the post-Arafat phase. For the first time, the organisation with a significant following, especially in Gaza, is fielding candidates for the coming municipal elections. Hamas supporters also say that the group is likely to contest the parliamentary elections in the summer of 2005. Many Palestinian commentators are of the view that the rise of Hamas could also have a lasting impact on the evolution of Fatah in the coming days. The two organisations have been in touch with each other, and there have been reports about sections of Fatah having planned joint attacks with Hamas against Israel in the past. While it is still uncertain how the rise of new forces will shape up the political landscape, it is evident that the stage has been set for the Palestinian territories to undergo a major political transformation. Once this is achieved, the Palestinians are likely to pioneer the emergence of a genuine Arab democracy in the heart of West Asia.

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