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Tuesday, Dec 21, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Tussle for the crown

By Vaiju Naravane

Although Nicolas Sarkozy appears to have outmanoeuvred Jacques Chirac within France's ruling party for the moment, the President is not without a few aces of his own.

THE LAVISH inauguration ceremony recently — some called it the coronation — that formally placed France's former Interior and Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy at the head of the ruling conservative UMP party was a grand affair with 40,000 cheering supporters. Mr. Sarkozy stage-managed the show to the very last detail and the UMP meeting looked more like a United States party investiture — complete with music, strobe lights, video endorsements from showbiz and politics, and wild applause — than the usually staid political gatherings customary in France.

"Two diminutive men but what runaway ambition," remarked a journalist acidly, comparing Mr. Sarkozy's physical size and political aspirations to that of Napoleon Bonaparte, the 200th anniversary of whose coronation fell just three days after Petit Nicolas' election.

Mr. Sarkozy's supporters, however, made sure that President Jacques Chirac's 72nd birthday on November 29, one day after the UMP meeting, did not go unnoticed either. By the time the next election rolls along Mr. Chirac will be on the verge of turning 75 and, if he wins a third term, will be an octogenarian at its end.

Mr. Sarkozy is unlikely to let slip the opportunity of making capital of the age factor. Twenty-three years, deep political differences and dense personal bitterness separate Mr. Chirac from his younger rival, who has managed to manoeuvre himself into a post that will give him both political clout as well as the necessary finances to prepare for the next presidential election scheduled for May 2007.

"It will have to be a case of parricide. Mr. Chirac has been a mentor to Nicolas Sarkozy. He groomed him and encouraged him before their falling out. Now, in order to be king, the little prince will have to kill his father," wrote the daily Liberation. Gossipy tongues say the ice in their relationship set in after Mr. Sarkozy first seduced then dumped Mr. Chirac's favourite daughter, Claude. ("I was never Sarkozy's mistress," Claude Chirac confided to political commentator Beatrice Guerry recently). Others say the freeze was the result of a political betrayal when "Sarko" sided with Mr. Chirac's rival, Eduard Balladur, in the first round of the presidential poll of 1995.

Mr. Sarkozy, 49, the son of a Hungarian refugee, is by far the most popular politician in France today. He has intentionally cast himself in a mould totally at variance with the conservative political establishment. Unlike Mr. Chirac and other party elephants, he is not a graduate of the elite National School of Administration although he has been the Mayor of a wealthy Paris suburb and has held tough ministerial portfolios such as the Interior and Finance. He is plain-talking and hyperactive as well as a past master at self-promotion.

In sharp contrast to Mr. Chirac who has harped on "multipolarity" as the only viable alternative to America's raw power, Mr. Sarkozy is shamelessly Atlanticist, approving of the war in Iraq and urging the sending of French troops there as part of the U.S.-led coalition.

On domestic issues too he has often taken an independent stand — a mixture of pragmatism and populism — that flies in the face of the Government's declared policy. For instance, he supports affirmative action for the country's nearly five million underprivileged Muslims, opposes the controversial law banning the wearing of religious symbols in state schools and, in order to integrate Muslims citizens into French society, would favour changes to a 1905 law that stipulates a strict separation between religion and the state. He is for greater flexibility in the workplace as well as accelerated privatisation of state-owned companies, which makes him a favourite with industry bosses.

With Mr. Sarkozy at the helm, France would definitely take a turn towards the ultra-liberal right. Mr. Chirac has indeed accused his rival of being ultra-conservative, communal and pro-American. "He wished to send troops to Iraq. Look where that would have landed us," he reportedly remarked.

Beatrice Guerry in her book entitled Le Rebelle et le Roi (The Rebel and the King) says Mr. Sarkozy has a triple motto: You don't inherit power, you conquer it; You don't wait your turn, you leapfrog to your destination; Even from a lowly ministerial perch you maintain a presidential mien, all the better to show voters you are capable of the top job.

Mr. Chirac's mistake is to appear complacent and silent, Ms. Guerry says, while Mr. Sarkozy multiplies actions and declarations under the glare of media attention creating the image of an efficient Minister, a man on the move, the man of tomorrow.

But will the steps of the Elysee Palace be all that easy to climb? Although Mr. Sarkozy appears to have outmanoeuvred Mr. Chirac for the moment, wresting control of the formidable political machine the latter created about 40 years ago, the President is not without a few aces of his own. Mr. Chirac is himself no stranger to betrayal and backstabbing as in 1981, for example, when he jerked the rug from under conservative President Valery Giscard d'Estaing thus ensuring the election of Socialist Francois Mitterrand.

With several corruption cases against him now suspended because of his presidential immunity, Mr. Chirac either needs another term in office, or a supportive right-winger at the Elysee who will grant him a presidential pardon. Mr. Chirac is not sure he can trust Mr. Sarkozy that far, and his camp's motto, at least for the moment, appears to be TSS or tout sauf Sarko meaning anyone but Mr. Sarkozy.

Mr. Chirac still has a very tightly knit body of supporters who have already swung into action in order to undermine Mr. Sarkozy whom they view as an ambitious upstart. Earlier this week, an appellate court grossly reduced the sentence for corruption against one of Mr. Chirac's staunchest supporters, former Prime Minister Alain Juppe. With his ineligibility reduced from 10 years to just one year, Mr. Juppe will be able to plunge back into active politics in time for the presidential election to shore up Mr. Chirac.

The next test at the national level will be the referendum on the E.U. Constitution next year. The Socialist Party's internal decision to vote in favour of the constitution has strengthened Mr. Chirac's hand. It indicates that nationally, the yes vote will probably carry the day. Both Mr. Chirac and Mr. Sarkozy are fully aware of how a referendum can be turned into a vote of censure against the Government and the President, and both men have said they want the document to be ratified before the presidential poll of 2007.

Mr. Chirac is aware of his age and its lack of appeal. It is quite likely that he will use the two years preceding the election to trip up Mr. Sarkozy while grooming his own person for the UMP's presidential nomination. Herve Gaymard, the newly named Finance Minister, is one such. Others in the "possible" list include the Interior Minister, Dominique de Villepin, the Solidarity Minister, Jean Luis Borloo, Mr. Juppe and Francois Baroin, a close aide of Mr. Chirac.

Mr. Sarkozy will have to step carefully and build bridges as he goes along. The centrists within the conservative camp are suspicious of his rightist views. His core support lies with the younger party cadres who wish to see reform and fast. Mr. Sarkozy says he plans just such a party shake-up and has pledged to double the party membership and propose an innovative electoral platform for 2007. So far, he has used the media cleverly to highlight his exploits as a successful Minister and to project himself as an "action man". However, his new job as party president might not provide him with the same opportunities for media exposure. Nevertheless, being politically savvy he has covered his back for the moment by declaring he will give "full and loyal support" to whomsoever the party chooses as its presidential candidate. Age is on his side. The wiser course might lie in graciously declining to run in the 2007 race in order to strike a surer blow five years later. Mr. Sarkozy is often described as a man in a hurry. Will he have the patience to wait?

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