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Tuesday, Dec 21, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

VOTE ON ACCOUNT

QUICK ON THE heels of the announcement of elections to the Assemblies of Bihar, Jharkhand and Haryana comes controversy. In the middle of the storm is — who else but Lalu Prasad, caught on camera distributing 100-rupee notes in a Dalit locality. Since the act violates the Model Code of Conduct, the Election Commission has directed that a First Information Report be filed against the Railway Minister. There is no doubt that Mr. Prasad committed a grave error by seeming to offer monetary inducements to a section of voters. The Minister ought to have acted with greater responsibility, for the sake of propriety and knowing that he would be keenly watched by the legion of opponents he has made in the 15 years he has been at the helm of Bihar politics. The pity is that he hardly needed to resort to any kind of skulduggery to win this contest. Having lost two successive elections — the 14th general election in May 2004 and then the Maharashtra State Assembly contest in October 2004 — the National Democratic Alliance is on the back foot, whether in Bihar, Jharkhand or Haryana.

Indeed the NDA has a lot more riding on this round of contests than the Congress-led alliance, which is much better placed to endure any setbacks (after performing above expectations in recent electoral battles). Mr. Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal is itself on a hat trick, having clinched two victories in a row, the last time seemingly from the jaws of defeat. The RJD fought and won that election single-handedly — and against a formidable Opposition. Since then the picture has changed substantially. First, Bihar has been partitioned to yield Jharkhand, which has worked to the advantage of the RJD. Mr. Prasad's party held only nine seats in South Bihar (which went on to become Jharkhand) as opposed to 115 in the rest of the State. Secondly, in the 2004 general election, Mr. Prasad put together a virtually unbeatable alliance with the Congress and the Lok Jana Shakti Party led by Ram Vilas Paswan.

The NDA, on the other hand, is a shadow of itself, its ranks depleted by desertions and its self-image dented by successive electoral defeats. The exit of Mr. Paswan has added to its woes, which must explain why the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (U) have embarked on a mission to win back the Dalit leader at any cost, even offering to project him as the alliance's Chief Ministerial candidate. That Mr. Paswan and Mr. Prasad have fallen out is a hopeful sign for the NDA even though the LJSP leader seems wary of renewing his ties with the twice-defeated alliance. In Jharkhand, the BJP faces a bleak situation. Not only is Chief Minister Arjun Munda ranged against an Opposition (the Congress, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, and the RJD) whose defeat is statistically improbable. He also needs to contend with raging dissidence [three former JD (U) Ministers joined the RJD on Sunday], not to mention his own abysmal incumbency record. In Haryana, the BJP is even worse off than in Bihar and Jharkhand. Before the Lok Sabha election, the BJP severed its alliance with the Om Prakash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal, seeing the partnership as a needless liability. The break-up resulted in a Congress sweep: the Congress won nine of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, polling 42.1 per cent of the vote, and leaving only Sonepat to the BJP. Since then the Haryana Vikas Party has merged with the Congress in a signal that nothing succeeds like success.

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