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Tuesday, Dec 28, 2004

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Alliance arithmetic holds the key

By Sanjay Kumar

While a Congress-JMM-RJD alliance can upset the BJP's applecart in Jharkhand, the absence of it will almost ensure a second innings for the BJP.

IT IS a little over four years since the new State of Jharkhand was created on November 15, 2000. Jharkhand was added as the 28th State of India, Chhattisgarh (created on November 1, 2000) being the 26th and Uttaranchal (created on November 9, 2000) being the 27th State. While Jharkhand was carved out of Bihar, Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh — geographically the biggest State before its division. Uttaranchal was formed after dividing the then most populous State, Uttar Pradesh. Both Uttaranchal and Jharkhand were created as separate States after a long-drawn struggle by the people.

People of the new States had high hopes from their new Governments, even though they had not elected a Government of their choice. No Assembly elections were held after the States came into existence. Different political parties, by virtue of their majority in the new Assembly, formed the new Governments. While the Bharatiya Janata Party formed the Government in Uttaranchal and Jharkhand, it was the Congress that formed the Government in Chhattisgarh. While the people of Uttaranchal and Chhattisgarh elected their new Governments in the Assembly elections held in the year 2002 and 2003 respectively, it is the turn of the people of Jharkhand to exercise their franchise in February 2005.

The Assembly elections in Uttaranchal and Chhattisgarh led to a change of guard in both the States. While in Uttaranchal, the Congress Government replaced the BJP Government, in Chhattisgarh it was the other way round. The incumbent Congress Government was defeated and the BJP formed the new Government. We do not know what lies in the mind of the voters of Jharkhand — will they return the BJP Government to power or are they eager for a change?

When Jharkhand was part of Bihar, the BJP had emerged as one of the most powerful political forces in the region. Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the region (now Jharkhand), the BJP had been winning a majority. During the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, it won 12 of the 14 seats and polled 34 per cent votes. In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, though it won 12 seats, it managed to increase its vote share by 11.5 percentage points. The dominance of the BJP in the region continued even during the 1999 Lok Sabha elections. It won 11 seats and polled 45. 5 per cent votes, exactly as much as it had polled during the 1998 Lok Sabha elections.

Though the people of Jharkhand have not voted for their Assembly since the creation of the State, the results of the 81 Assembly constituencies from the region indicate that the decline of the BJP started since the 2000 Assembly elections. Of the 81 seats, the BJP could win only 32. Compared with the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, its vote share went down by nearly 20 percentage points. The BJP, contesting 72 Assembly seats, polled only 25.1 per cent votes during the 2000 Assembly elections. Things did not improve for the BJP during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections — the first elections held in the State. It managed to win only one seat and polled 33.0 per cent votes.

The challenge to the BJP has essentially come from the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Though the BJP formed the first Government in the State as it had the largest number of MLAs in the Assembly, the Congress, the JMM and the RJD had a reasonable presence in the State.

In the 2000 Assembly elections, the Congress won 11 Assembly seats and polled 20.1 per cent votes, the JMM won 12 seats and polled 15.9 per cent votes and the RJD won 9 Assembly seats, polling 11.6 per cent votes. This was the election in which, while the Congress and the JMM contested on their own, the RJD had an alliance with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Marxist Coordination Committee.

Though in terms of the number of seats, the JMM was a little ahead of the Congress, in terms of the votes polled, which could be a better indicator of assessing the strength of the party, the Congress remained way ahead of the JMM.

The recently held 2004 Lok Sabha elections established the strength of the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance. The alliance won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats (Congress 6, JMM 4, RJD 2) while Babu Lal Marandi was the lone BJP candidate who won the Kodrama Lok Sabha seat. It was Bhubneshwar Prasad Mehta, the CPI candidate, who defeated Yashwant Sinha in the Hazaribagh Lok Sabha constituency. Though the JMM contested only 5 Lok Sabha seats as against 12 seats it contested during the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, its vote share increased by nearly 6.8 percentage points.

If we look at the results of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections in terms of leads in the Assembly segments, of the total 81 segments, the Congress led in 29, the JMM in 22, the RJD in 7, and the CPI in four. The BJP could establish its lead only in 16 Assembly segments, while the Janata Dal (United) led in two. An independent candidate led in one Assembly segment. This shows that if this had been an Assembly election, the Congress alliance would have swept the polls in the State. If we assume that nothing much has changed in the State since the last Lok Sabha elections, it seems that the alliance is all set to sweep the 2005 Assembly polls in Jharkhand.

But the victory cannot be taken for granted. First, one should remember that in spite of its poor performance, the BJP still has the strongest support base in the State. It still remains the single largest party in terms of the votes polled. It polled 33 per cent votes in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Secondly, the three political parties, the JMM, the Congress and the RJD managed to push back the BJP only when they contested as alliance partners. In the event of all the parties contesting the elections separately, the BJP could still manage a win in Jharkhand.

The BJP has the handicap of not having an alliance that has a reasonable presence in the State. The JD (U) polled only 3.8 per cent of votes during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. It is not out of choice, but out of compulsion, that the BJP has to enter the electoral fray without a formidable alliance. Though its alliance partner, JD (U), has announced its willingness to contest 34 of the 81 seats, the BJP is maintaining a studied silence on the issue at the moment. With very little support base in Jharkhand, the JD (U) contesting more seats will only damage the prospects of the BJP alliance retaining power.

On the other hand, the advantage for the Congress alliance is that all the three partners have a reasonable support base in the State. Together, they can forge ahead of any other alliance or party.

This was demonstrated by the alliance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The parties together polled 41.5 per cent of the votes. In the first past the post electoral system this support base by any means has to be taken seriously.

So the key to the electoral battle in Jharkhand lies in the alliance arithmetic. With very little presence, the JD (U) could hardly boost the BJP's prospects. But a JMM-Congress-RJD alliance would certainly make a difference to both the BJP and the Congress. If the Congress, the JMM and the RJD cannot form an alliance, the splitting of votes will almost ensure a second innings for the BJP. On the contrary, a formidable Congress-JMM-RJD alliance can upset the calculations of the BJP easily. If the CPI joins the alliance, it will only add to its strength.

Though the Congress, the RJD and the JMM will be willing to enter an alliance, the question is whether they can sort out the problem of seat sharing. If this issue can be resolved amicably among them, nothing can stop them from registering an impressive victory. But for this to happen, all the alliance partners will have to be ready to make some sacrifice. Particularly, the issue of who will be the dominant partner will have to be sorted out between the Congress and the JMM for the alliance to take shape.

(The writer is Fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi.)

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