The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : A SHAKY START

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Tuesday, Dec 28, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

A SHAKY START

FOR ALL THE political strength that United States President George W. Bush gained at the end of the last electoral cycle, there are enough signs that the early months of his second term will not be trouble-free. The problems likely to be encountered in the second innings appear quite formidable even without reckoning the continuing fiasco of Iraq. Mr. Bush made less than inspiring choices while picking personnel for important posts in the administration; his plans for the revamp of key departments have met with resistance; and an ambitious domestic agenda might be hit by the fallout of the disastrous foreign policy he pursued in the first term. The Bush team's failure to exercise due diligence while vetting nominees for high office has already shown up in its choice for the Secretary of Homeland Security, Bernard Kerik. The White House had to withdraw Mr. Kerik's nomination after it discovered late in the day that he had breached tax and immigration laws while engaging household help. Mr. Bush's choice for Attorney General, Alberto Gonzales, is likely to face a grilling during confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate. While serving as White House counsel during the first term, Mr. Gonzales won notoriety for describing the Geneva Conventions as "rather quaint" and arguing that the President could waive the applicability of international law during a time of war. The incoming Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, might not have an easier time in the confirmation hearings since Democratic Senators are determined to rake up her less than lustrous performance as National Security Adviser. Mr. Bush cannot also continue to ignore the growing clamour from a caucus of Republican Senators for the ouster of Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.

Given the Republican majority in the Senate, Mr. Bush's nominees are likely to secure confirmation even if their reputations take a beating during the hearings. However, the effort to revamp certain key departments has triggered a strong reaction from the professional cadres that could have long-term implications. Several senior officials of the Central Intelligence Agency resigned after the new Director General, Porter Goss, took over a few months ago; they were apparently offended by his high-handedness. While Ms. Rice is expected to enforce discipline in the State Department, her plans for a shake-up might also meet with stiff resistance. Career officers, whose views were treated with respect by the outgoing Secretary, Colin Powell, are likely to resent any attempt to pressure them into toeing the official line. Aside from such resistance, the second term administration might also have to deal with bitter competition between different agencies. For instance, the fight between the CIA and the Defence Department for control of a new, unified intelligence apparatus might last well into the next four years.

While the Republicans effectively control both Houses of Congress, there are fissures between the conservative and moderate wings of the party that the Democrats can exploit. The Democrats will do all they can to capitalise on these cleavages and seek to frustrate the President's plans for overhauling the Social Security system and the tax code. The executive branch cannot afford any kind of standoff with Congress since its financial resources are over-stretched on account of the occupation of Iraq. A further deterioration of the situation in Iraq, which appears very likely, can only reduce the administration's capacity to manoeuvre. A reading of the ground realities would suggest that Mr. Bush has to follow a bipartisan approach while crafting policies. That does not appear likely given the arrogance displayed in the first term.

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