The Hindu : Front Page : Missive triggers panic waves

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Dec 31, 2004

Front Page

Front Page

Missive triggers panic waves

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, DEC. 30. Was it a warning? Or an advisory? An alert? Or, a simple case of once bitten, twice shy?

However one may choose to characterise an early morning communication from the Ministry of Home Affairs to the Chief Secretaries of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar, the missive was enough to fuel a wave of panic in the coastal areas, temporarily throwing out of gear relief efforts for a few hours.

By late afternoon the Home Minister, Shivraj Patil was embarrassed that his Ministry had been the source of over-reaction, and the Science and Technology Minister, Kapil Sibal was distancing his Ministry from the warning.

By evening, theHome Ministry had withdrawn (``decided to stand down the alert message,'' in officialese language) the warning.

The morning communication from the Ministry carried with it the tag of highest and most immediate attention ``alert warning/crash.'' Citing suggestions of ``a number of outside experts outside the country'' that ``another tsunami may hit Indian Ocean today,'' the Home Ministry advised the State Governments to be cautious.

It also requested the Chief Secretaries to ``put their administrative machinery on alert in the coastal areas and keep continuous vigil on any developments in the sea. Arrangements may also be made for evacuation of people, if required. Shoreline up to 2 km into the main land may be made non-accessible to the general public. This Ministry will come back to you once the available information is analysed and the assessment is made. Navy, Army, Air Force and Coast Guard have also been advised to be on alert and also provide you all necessary help. Their services may be requisitioned where required.''

Even though by evening the alert had been withdrawn, there remained confusion about the source of the original warning. In the communication sent out by S.K. Swami, Director, National Disaster Management in the Home Ministry, the warning was received from ``Australian Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre,'' whereas the Science and Technology officials had made available to The Hindu a communication from Michael Menthy, Director, Terra Research, based in Portland, Oregon (U.S.A.)

As per the Science and Technology Ministry officials, they merely passed on the message to the Union Home Ministry and if anybody was guilty of ``over-interpretation,'' it must be the National Disaster Management cell.

Mr. Patil had his version. He said the warning was issued as there was a message and the Government did not want to ignore it. The warning was more as a precautionary measure so that the people could be alert to the possibility of another tsunami spell. We want to take a balanced view. We neither want to be over-cautious nor be nonchalant.

Mr. Sibal, in a separate press conference, begged to differ. He argued that any talk of prediction of an earthquake was totally unscientific and needed to be rejected, as no science or technology was available in the world today that could predict an earthquake. At best, one can only identify geological faults and say that an area may be prone to an earthquake. ``If anybody is going to say an earthquake is going to take place at a certain time and on a certain date, such an opinion will be unscientific, hogwash and need to be rejected,'' he said.

Asked why the India Meteorology Department had then forwarded to the Home Ministry the message sent by the American research company, which led to the confusion, he said the IMD had only sent it to the Home Ministry. But, without expressing any opinion. It was up to them to take whatever action they deemed fit.

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