The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : IN A CLEFT STICK

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Thursday, Jan 06, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

IN A CLEFT STICK

THE UNITED STATES thought that many of the problems it has encountered in its illegal occupation of Iraq would be solved once an elected government was installed in Baghdad. Now, with less than a month to go before the parliamentary election, the indications are that the occupiers will not only have to contend with the difficulties they currently face. They are guaranteed an even more complex situation in the post-poll phase. Having earlier thought of delaying the elections by a few months, the U.S. and the puppet regime apparently concluded that this would not be a wise move. A change in the schedule of the polls on account of the insurgency could have come across as an admission of defeat that would only embolden the resistance. A decision to this effect would also be opposed by the Shias who have largely stayed out of the resistance for the past few months but are no less keen to see an end to the occupation. The Shias look forward eagerly to an electoral process that is likely to give them political power in Mesopotamia for the first time in centuries. If this process is set aside to placate a largely Sunni resistance movement, Shia anger will be directed not at their compatriots but at the powers taking that decision.

Iraq's election commission has the near-impossible task of carrying out an effective electoral exercise in the Sunni belt, west and north of Baghdad, given the intensity of the resistance movement in this region. Insurgents have killed officials of the commission and are likely to do all they can to disrupt polling. The largest Sunni party in the coalition government that currently rules the country decided not to contest the elections, and hardline clerics denounced those who intend to participate. Under these circumstances, the turnout in this region is likely to be very low. That would have its own repercussions given the electoral system that has been adopted. Instead of choosing representatives from regional constituencies, the people of Iraq will make their choice from the national lists of the contesting parties. Each party will be entitled to a number of parliamentary seats proportional to its share of the national vote. Given this system and a likely low turnout, the Sunnis might end up with far fewer than the 20 per cent of seats that they should otherwise obtain on the strength of their population. To prevent this anomaly, the U.S. and several members of the transitional government have proposed that the Sunnis should either be allocated a certain number of seats irrespective of the poll performance of their parties or be included in the post-poll cabinet even if they did not contest. Shia politicians have not rejected this proposal but they are unlikely to gloss over it either.

The four Shia parties that have come together to make a common list of candidates are well poised to win a large share of parliamentary seats and form the government. Significantly, the Iraqi National Accord of the current Prime Minister, Ayad Allawi, is not a part of this coalition. If, after the election, Mr. Allawi is just short of the strength required to stake a claim, the proposal to give special representation to the Sunnis might not appear so innocuous. Those who are provided a parliamentary seat or a ministerial berth are likely to feel obliged to the person who secured them the privilege. On the other hand, the U.S. will be sorely displeased if the Shia alliance wins the polls.

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