The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : ADVANTAGE UPA

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Jan 11, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

ADVANTAGE UPA

THE COUNTDOWN HAS begun for elections to the State Assemblies of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Haryana, and what better evidence of this than the hectic behind-the-scenes bargaining for seats by the major political players. And although the final picture — the composition of the various alliances as well as the terms of seat sharing within each grouping — is yet to emerge, the stakes look weighted in favour of the United Progressive Alliance, and not least because of the unravelling of the BJP's once formidable grouping in the wake of successive electoral reverses. To be sure, the Congress camp has its share of problems. It must offend the party that heads the government at the Centre that its new-found celebrity status has not cut much ice with its partners in the States. In battleground Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal chief, the imperious Lalu Prasad, seems determined to yield only the minimum space to the Congress, after appearing to weaken the UPA's prospects through the alienation of Ram Vilas Paswan, a key member of the combine that trounced the National Democratic Alliance in the 14th general election. In neighbouring Jharkhand, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha clinched a deal that effectively reduced the national party to a junior partner. The Congress was also faced with Mr. Prasad's sudden, if mercifully brief, rebellion over the Jharkhand formula.

Not that the Congress alliance is in any danger because of these manoeuvres. Pre-election posturing is often the process by which political parties arrive at a final settlement, and indeed Mr. Prasad acknowledged as much on Sunday when, in an equally dramatic turnaround, he promised not to rock the UPA boat. The constituents understand only too well the significance of their victory in the May 2004 general election. That the arithmetic is on its side is a bonus for the UPA. Mr. Paswan's stand aside, the numbers favour the RJD in Bihar, largely because no rival alliance of any significance has taken shape so far. The BJP and the Janata Dal (U) moved in swiftly to exploit the rift between Mr. Prasad and Mr. Paswan, only to be rebuffed by the Dalit leader. Mr. Paswan's pre-condition for an alliance with the JD(U) was that it must break with the BJP. Unable to meet that condition, the JD(U) has since announced a seat-sharing pact with the BJP that leaves little room for an understanding with the Lok Jana Shakti Party. In any case, such an alliance was improbable, given the LJSP leader's interest in retaining his Central Ministership and also in building and sustaining a coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and other marginalised groups.

The NDA is in an even greater disarray in Jharkhand and Haryana. In Jharkhand, the fight is between an increasingly isolated and beleaguered BJP and a grand alliance comprising the JMM, the Congress, the RJD, and the two Communist parties. The Opposition alliance is not merely a statistical power bloc; the constituents represent a potent social coalition drawn from Dalits, Adivasis, and Other Backward Classes. Not surprisingly, the alliance swept the Lok Sabha election. Chief Minister Arjun Munda's indifferent record and his running battles with the JD(U) — whose members have begun defecting to the Opposition alliance — have expectedly added to the BJP's misery. In Haryana too, the BJP is left friendless, having snapped ties with the Indian National Lok Dal led by Om Prakash Chauthala just before the Lok Sabha election. It will hardly be a surprise if the State turns out to be a happy hunting ground for the Congress. The odds in this round are stacked against the BJP, which is desperately in search of a break from its recent run of electoral defeats.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

News Update

Stories in this Section

ADVANTAGE UPA

WHERE IS PRABAKARAN?

Schooling in rural India

Ageism affects young and old