The Hindu : National : BJP looking for electoral miracle

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Jan 21, 2005

National

National

BJP looking for electoral miracle

By Neena Vyas

NEW DELHI, JAN. 20. It is election time again and the Bharatiya Janata Party, still recovering from the wounds inflicted by the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections and the Maharashtra Assembly election that followed, is looking for some balm. But barring the "miracle" of a "people's revolution'' against the Lalu rule, or rather the Rabri rule in Bihar, it has little to look forward to.

The BJP leaders put up a brave front saying that they can swing Haryana on the basis of the `strong anti-incumbency tide' against the Indian National Lok Dal of Om Prakash Chautala and the `serious infighting' in the Congress; that in Jharkhand the `good performance' of its Government will see it through; and in Bihar the "pandrah saal, bura haal" slogan of the BJP will spell the undoing of "jungle-raj'', but in the internal assessment of senior leaders things are not all that rosy.

"In Haryana, we will be lucky to cross the single-digit figure. Our `prabhari' (general secretary in-charge) Shivraj Singh Chauhan, is working hard, but the general mood is in favour of our rival, the Congress.'' That is the assessment of not just one but several party leaders. They have just to look at the recent Lok Sabha figures — the BJP won only one of 10 seats, the rest were taken by the Congress — to confirm their worst fears, and nothing seems to have happened since then to make the tide turn the BJP way.

SYL canal issue

The party is banking heavily on the controversy generated by the Sutlej-Yamuna Link canal and the "anti-Haryana" stance of the ruling Congress Government in Punjab to sell its campaign. The second factor it is depending upon is the massive infighting in the Congress camp, but even so, the BJP may not be in a position to benefit. One factor that is pulling it back is that for some years it has not contested all Assembly seats since forming an alliance with the INLD.

In Jharkhand the party is in a quandary. Should it declare at some point during the campaign that it could place a non-tribal in the Chief Minister's chair in the hope of consolidating its support base among the non-tribals known as "sadan"? It is clear to the party leadership that its Chief Minister, Arjun Munda, has failed to deliver, but replacing him just before election will not have worked. Realising this the party has refrained from projecting him as its preferred choice for a second term as Chief Minister.

There is the view in the party that the Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha- Left-Rashtriya Janata Dal "could make it" to the winning post, but there are some who are not averse to the idea of tempting the JMM leader, Shibu Soren, with the Chief Minister's post should the arithmetic after results favour such an arrangement.

The real battle and the biggest challenge for the BJP and its ally, Janata Dal (United) is in Bihar. Can the RJD led by Lalu Prasad win the election once again despite the "misrule" of 15 years? The breaking down of a seat-sharing arrangement between the Congress and the RJD and the animosity between the RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party have given the BJP-JD (U) a chance. But the BJP leaders also fear that a larger number of seats contested by the Congress could mean that some of its upper caste vote could shift to the party that is ruling at the Centre.

One senior party leader said that he had no doubt the RJD would not be able to form another government without putting together all of the allies of the United Progressive Alliance. Mr. Yadav may even need the help of Mr. Paswan, currently his sworn enemy. But that does not help the BJP for Mr. Paswan is unlikely to tie up with the BJP or give up his comfortable Cabinet ministership at the Centre.

There is also the view that "development" or lack of it does not mean the same thing to all people. "If you do not have a car, then congested roads cannot make you angry; for the millions whose world begins and ends with their village lack of infrastructure may not be a big issue ... in Bihar, it seems, not development but empowerment is the key word.''

Ayodhya, Godhra

The BJP leaders also worry that Ayodhya may not be so relevant to Hindus as Godhra to Muslims.

In politics this could translate into the indifference of Hindus to the Hindutva forces represented by the BJP and consolidation of Muslims in favour of the RJD.

"We can only hope for a people's revolution, a wave of discontent that will sweep Lalu Prasad's party out of power in Bihar, but that is an outside chance,'' a senior BJP leader said.

But building on what the BJP describes as the "anti-Lalu vote", the BJP and its ally are certainly hoping to cross the 100-mark in an Assembly of 243.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

National