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Saturday, Jan 22, 2005

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A TOUCH OF UNCERTAINTY

WHICH WAY WILL the verdict swing in the elections to the State Assemblies of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Haryana? Up until a fortnight ago, the answer seemed self-evident: With the opposition National Democratic Alliance hamstrung by defeats, desertions, and factionalism, the more cohesive United Progressive Alliance appeared set for a clean 3-0 sweep. If the contest no longer looks so obviously one-sided, this does not reflect any last-minute surge by the NDA. The Bharatiya Janata Party and its ally, the Janata Dal(U), look as woebegone today as they did when elections were announced. What has changed substantially is the equation among the constituents of the UPA. Eight months ago, they wrested an almost impossible victory from the NDA. That triumph should have cemented their unity and firmed up the alliance for future elections. Instead, the tentative, unsure coalition that was swept to power in the 14th general election is today showing classic symptoms of overconfidence. So much so that in several constituencies across Bihar and Jharkhand, members of the alliance — the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, the Lok Jana Shakti Party, and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha — are fighting one another even as they fight their collective opponent, the BJP-led NDA.

The alliance that Sonia Gandhi so painstakingly put together for the 14th general election took its first blow when Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan abruptly ended their mutually beneficial friendship. Since then the near perfect understanding between the RJD and the Congress in Bihar has given way to a half-hearted pact involving `friendly contests' in over 60 constituencies. The Congress has also entered into an alliance with the Lok Jana Shakti Party. In Jharkhand, the pitch has been queered by the RJD's protest decision to go it alone. Do the cracks in the UPA presage the likely exit of the RJD Government in Bihar? Not on the face of it. If the multi-cornered contest assumes a credible `Lalu versus others' shape, the RJD can be presumed to be home and dry. It must also be remembered that the RJD president fought and won the 2000 Assembly election single-handedly — against an opposition high on morale and united as never before.

Yet Mr. Prasad is far from being invincible, as can be seen even from the results of the 2004 Lok Sabha election. In terms of share of the popular vote, the rival blocs were separated by a modest 7.5 percentage points. The RJD and its allies won 29 seats and 44.4 per cent of the vote while the corresponding figures for the BJP alliance were 11 seats and 36.9 per cent. The RJD itself was the largest single party with 22 seats and a 30.7 per cent vote share. Much depends then on how the contest plays out on the ground. Has the BJP alliance been weakened by its recent defeats? Will voters view the Congress, which is in a two-way arrangement with the RJD and the LJSP, as a friend of Mr. Prasad or as his enemy? In Jharkhand and Haryana the defeat of the incumbent governments appears more or less assured. The problems the UPA faces are of its own making. The Congress fears eventual decimation at the hands of Mr. Prasad, as does the LJSP. The Congress is also under pressure from its State unit to exploit the party's newly elevated status as head of Government at the Centre. Coalition dharma dictates that constituent aspirations should yield primacy to the overall interests of the alliance — but the Congress and its allies seem to think this is only for the textbooks.

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