The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : HOLD YOUR FIRE

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Monday, Jan 24, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

HOLD YOUR FIRE

AMIDST THE HYPE surrounding the composite dialogue process between India and Pakistan that has been on since the Islamabad summit of January 2004, it is sometimes forgotten that the real breakthrough in the bilateral relationship is the ceasefire that has reigned along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir since November 2003. It bears recall that the offer to let the guns fall silent was made by Islamabad and quickly accepted by India; within days, both sides clarified that the ceasefire would be extended along the agreed ground position line (AGPL) in Siachen. The composite dialogue that began last summer might have produced no common ground under any of the eight heads but the ceasefire along the LoC and AGPL has been scrupulously observed. This has not only saved precious lives on both sides; it has also brought a measure of normality to the relationship between the armed forces of India and Pakistan. It is against this backdrop that the firing of twelve 81-mm mortar rounds from the Pakistani side of the LoC near Poonch last week is worrisome. Are the incidents really happenstance, as the two Governments seem to be maintaining officially?

The Indian side asked Pakistan for an explanation of the firing and was promised the matter would be investigated. The Pakistani Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO) duly probed the incident and informed his Indian counterpart that there had been no violation of the ceasefire from his side. While New Delhi officially seems content to treat the matter as closed, the reality of the mortar firing admits of only three possibilities, none of them really palatable. The first is that the Pakistani side fired, perhaps to cover an infiltration attempt by militants across the LoC, and subsequently sought to hide this fact. The second is that Pakistani military commanders at the local level decided to open fire, perhaps to avenge the incident a few days earlier when Indian jawans near Poonch eliminated an infiltrating militant party, and misled their own DGMO about the event. The third is that the militant groups themselves have acquired the capability to fire mortar shells, perhaps from shoulder-fired tubes.

Since there is no indication of a general shift in Pakistan's policy of not encouraging militant crossings, it is more than possible that the mortar shots were the handiwork of militants. This in itself is not alarming, since the caliber fired is still small change. What is essential, however, is to ensure that terrorist groups are not allowed to disrupt the peace process by staging incidents designed to fuel suspicion in New Delhi about Islamabad's true intentions. It is in this context that the two Governments need to work hard for concrete outcomes from the ongoing second round of composite dialogue because that is the only way to generate trust. In particular, there is no military or political reason why the old draft Siachen pullback agreement — or some up-to-date variant of it — cannot be pushed through and signed. Of the irrationalities that govern the bilateral relationship, none has proved more pointlessly deadly than the high-altitude war atop that frozen glacier, which is surely one of the world's least useful places. A ceasefire prevails in Siachen but soldiers are still dying because of the extreme conditions of deployment. If a mutual pullback is effected, neither side is likely to risk the heavy political cost that sneaking back in would inevitably entail. Sustained and deeper bilateral engagement and commitment to tangible progress in selected areas will help consolidate the ceasefire and rule out any serious setback.

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