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CRUCIAL YEAR FOR POLITICAL UNION

THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT has endorsed by an overwhelming majority the treaty of Rome (2004) that established a Constitution for the countries of the European Union (EU). This is the third ratification of the landmark document after Lithuania and Hungary, two recent entrants into the EU, decided `yes' through a parliamentary vote. It is true the recent integrationist victory still does not make it binding on individual member states to ratify the Constitution. But the outcome is politically symbolic because Europe's transition from an economic entity into a political union has encountered dogged opposition. Curiously, antipathy towards the new Constitution has spawned an unlikely coalition of forces, some of whom yearn for more unity while others reject in toto the idea of integration. While the new Constitution is far from perfect, it needs to be judged against the imperative of evolving political institutions compatible with the unprecedented expansion of economic and technological cooperation. The anti-Europe forces typically prey on the fears of an ill-informed public by raising the bogey of a centralised super-state that will erode the sovereignty of nation-states. The fact is that the European Constitution — to a large extent, a consolidation of prevailing domestic laws — is intended to coexist with national Constitutions. Paradoxically, the resistance has penetrated the very institutions of the EU that embody the spirit of integration, notably the European Parliament.

Against this backdrop, the basic requirement that each of the 25 member-states should ratify the Constitution before it can come into force in late 2006 assumes real significance. While a majority of countries have opted for a parliamentary vote, nine member-states are expected to hold referenda on the Constitution. It is a reasonable expectation that the outcome of a parliamentary vote will reflect the positions of the relevant governments. However, the outcome of a referendum will be uncertain, especially in countries like the United Kingdom where Euroscepticism is alive and kicking. In fact, the strongest opposition in the European Parliament came from MEPs belonging to the Czech Republic, Poland, and the U.K. The prospects for ratification will critically depend on public perceptions of the merits of political union in relation to issues that matter. Eurosceptics have been running a highly organised campaign of misinformation about the new Constitution, as well as the implications of an enlarged Europe for the countries concerned. This could have an adverse impact on a direct popular vote that is meant to decide on the specific question of a common Constitution for the EU. Moreover, there are apprehensions of poor voter participation, which usually makes for negative verdicts. These fears are not unfounded considering that the 2004 polls to the European Parliament witnessed the lowest voter turnout since the introduction of direct elections in 1979.

Next month, Spain will initiate a `sudden death' referendum exercise as it were, and it will be followed by the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The outcomes of these referenda will be highly indicative of the popular mood across Europe in this crucial year for political union. Recent opinion polls indicate the contest tightening, although by no means threateningly, even in countries where there has traditionally been a strong pro-European sentiment. For instance, there is a perception that the commencement of formal negotiations later this year on Turkey's accession to the EU could have a bearing on the referendum in France where the issue has generated considerable debate. The hope is that the attractions of global peace, democratic solidarity, and the idea of uniting to make Europe stronger on the world stage will prevail over narrow, short-term considerations.

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