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TOWARDS A GLOBAL WARNING SYSTEM

FOR THE LAST 40 years, only the Pacific Ocean has had a tsunami warning system. However, after the tsunami of all tsunamis — the monster of December 26, 2004 — there is uneasy awareness of the destruction this relatively obscure natural phenomenon can bring. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation plans (according to its Director-General, Koichiro Matsuura) to establish a global tsunami warning system that will be operational by June 2007. A warning system for the Indian Ocean, which will be the first regional component of the global system, is to be in place by June 2006. Plans for the Indian Ocean component are to be settled this June at the annual meeting of UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), which coordinates the international warning system for the Pacific. The United States has announced plans substantially to increase its tsunami detection and warning capabilities. Although this augmentation is primarily meant to extend tsunami protection to the whole U.S. coastline, the improved tsunami monitoring capabilities in the Pacific and Caribbean basins will, in the words of an official press release, provide "tsunami warning for regions bordering half of the world's oceans." The U.S. will continue to provide leadership in planning and implementing a global system, according to John H. Marburger III, science advisor to the U.S. President and director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

At the World Conference on Disaster Reduction at Kobe in Japan, where special sessions were devoted to tsunamis, there were initially tremors of a different sort with the U.S. appearing to question the ability of the U.N. to coordinate a global tsunami warning system. Considering that UNESCO has been running the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ICG/ITSU) from 1968, the U.S. position clearly lacked credibility. In the end it was agreed that the United Nations would coordinate implementation of the tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean. But there are still hurdles to overcome. The United States, Japan, Australia, and Germany all want their technologies to be used in the Indian Ocean warning system. Not to be outdone, India, China, France, Thailand, and Indonesia wish to contribute. India and Thailand, in fact, may choose to establish their own tsunami warning systems. It will be up to the U.N. to make sure all these technologies and regional warning systems can work together smoothly. Immediately after the Kobe conference, there was a U.N.-sponsored meeting to review and coordinate plans and activities on developing tsunami early warning systems, particularly for the Indian Ocean region.

According to Kapil Sibal, India's Minister of State for Science and Technology, the Department of Ocean Development has prepared a Rs.125 crore plan for a tsunami warning system that will benefit not just India but also neighbouring countries. There will no doubt be companies and groups that would want to sell their equipment and technology for setting up the Indian system. The warning system that is configured must be one that meets Indian requirements best and makes the most of capabilities available within the country. In addition, it is in India's interest to ensure that its proposed system integrates well with the tsunami network being planned by the U.N. Thus unnecessary and costly duplication can be avoided, and the effectiveness of the warning system can be greatly enhanced. The best way to secure a national warning system that is dependable, efficient, and cost-effective will be for the Government to initiate wide-ranging consultations with scientists and other experts within the country and abroad before finalising its plans.

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