The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : OF AYA RAMS AND GAYA RAMS

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Wednesday, Feb 02, 2005

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OF AYA RAMS AND GAYA RAMS

THE TINY STATE of Goa, no stranger to political flux and uncertainty, has been plunged into yet another crisis with the emergence of doubts about whether the Manohar Parrikar Government continues to enjoy a majority. The dramatic and sudden developments were triggered by the resignation of four Bharatiya Janata Party members from the State Assembly and the withdrawal of support to the Government by two MLAs. The sudden political twist was unexpected for two reasons. First, it came within two days of the BJP shoring up support for its Government; it was only last week that the lone MLA belonging to the United Goa Democratic Party (Secular) merged his grouping with the BJP. Secondly, the Parrikar regime seemed under no real threat before these developments; it enjoyed the support of 21 BJP MLAs and three others (two from regional parties and one Independent) in a House of 40 members.

A good part of the answer to why the numbers may not add up now lies in understanding how they were made up in the first place. In the 2002 Assembly election, the BJP won merely 17 seats. Over the past two years, the magic figure of 21 — the minimum required for a simple majority — was reached by engineering splits and encouraging defections. Of the four MLAs who were persuaded to join the BJP, one belonged to the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), one was a Congressman, and two were from factions of the UGDP. Ironically, and very significantly, it is this odd group of four who have resigned from the Assembly and placed a question mark on the continuation of the Parrikar regime. It is perhaps only natural that those who live by defections run the risk of dying from them, but the present crisis is also the fallout of a specific decision taken by the Chief Minister. It was no accident that the resignations and withdrawal of support occurred soon after Mr. Parrikar took away the important Town and Country Planning portfolio from one of his influential Ministers, Atansasio Monseratte — the man who is believed to have orchestrated the revolt.

In an environment where speculation is rife about further defections, it is risky to forecast how the numbers will eventually stack up. But the air of political uncertainty needs to be dispelled quickly. Governor S.C. Jamir has done the right thing by directing Mr. Parrikar to prove his majority in the House "without further delay." As a nine-member Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court observed: "in all cases where the support to the Ministry is claimed to have been withdrawn by some Legislators, the proper course for testing the strength of the Ministry is holding the test on the floor of the House" (S.R. Bommai and others v. Union of India, 1994). What happens on February 2, the day set for the floor test, is anybody's guess. But Mr. Parrikar's hopes of survival have been boosted by the support he received from Tourism Minister and UGDP MLA, Matanhy Saldhana, who was earlier believed to have switched political camps. The recent developments demonstrate that Goa is not free from the political instability that has dogged it in recent years; the State has seen a mere 13 Chief Ministers sworn in between 1990 and 2000! It was generally believed that Mr. Parrikar's ascension in 2000 marked the end of this period of political flux. Four years and one State Assembly election later, it is clear that the instability is the natural mode of political existence in the State and, as Mr. Parrikar ought to have known, it is in the nature of aya rams to be gaya rams.

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