The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : Making sense of Sonia's Bihar campaign

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Wednesday, Feb 02, 2005

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Opinion - News Analysis

Making sense of Sonia's Bihar campaign

By Venkitesh Ramakrishnan

BHAGALPUR/ARRSAH, FEB. 1. The Congress president Sonia Gandhi's two-day campaign in Bihar in the constituencies going to the polls on February 1 was indeed impressive in terms of mass participation and popular enthusiasm but questions about the real import of the campaign remain.

Throughout her campaign Ms. Gandhi desisted from naming any political force except the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the National Democratic Alliance. While she criticised these organisations directly the references to the deficiencies of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and its 15-year-long governance were indirect.

These references came in the form of statements such as "Bihar needs to improve its law and order situation" or "This land of learning and wisdom has been taken over by anarchy and degenerate political actions." However, all her speeches were concluded with the pronouncement that "The Congress will create a situation in this election through which it will be able to put pressure on a new secular government to make it more productive and accountable to the people."

These statements have become a matter for intense debate among the electorate. While one section of Congress supporters and sympathisers claim to have understood what Ms. Gandhi meant, another section says it can make no sense of it at all.

`Not clear'

"It is not clear what Soniaji wants the people to do, or whether she is really opposed to the RJD and its Government," said Alok Nath Singh, a first-time voter who had come to hear her at the massive Congress rally in Bhagalpur on Saturday. "Because of this lack of clarity," added Alok, "we will not be taking a definitive pro-Congress position this time." Alok and his upper caste Bhumihar friends would rather opt for a BJP-Janata Dal(U) combine, the principal opposition to the RJD.

Some confusion

A couple of Congress workers, who got into a fairly animated and public discussion with an AICC secretary on Friday after Ms. Gandhi's Arrah meeting, also spoke in a similar vein. "We should oppose the RJD and its Government the whole hog, if we need to make gains," the workers tried to impress upon the leader.

However, another section of the electorate, especially a large segment belonging to the Muslim minority says it can clearly make out what the Congress president is trying to say. "Soniaji has told the voters," said Mohammed Nisar of Narga in Bhagalpur, "that the Congress should get enough seats that it is able to exert positive pressure on the new government, whether it is led by the RJD or Ramvilas Paswan's LJP."

But Nisar and many other residents of Narga also told The Hindu that the minorities would vote for the Congress only if it gets sufficient votes from other communities to defeat the BJP. Nisar and his friends are not yet sure whether the Congress is capable of garnering that kind of support.

Interestingly, when the Congress had decided to contest independent of the RJD-led alliance, the BJP and its ally the Janata Dal(U) had branded it as a ploy to split Hindu upper caste votes from their combine to benefit the ruling party. But if the popular reaction from the areas where Sonia Gandhi campaigned is anything to go by, the depletion of votes seems to be from the traditional RJD vote base such as the minority community. And sections of the Congress, including some middle-level leaders, believe that the election plan of the Congress is indeed to weaken the RJD and its Government, albeit through indirect opposition.

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Making sense of Sonia's Bihar campaign