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Thursday, Feb 03, 2005

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CONGRESS GAME PLAN

COMMON SENSE SUGGESTS that no political party fighting three simultaneous elections will want to open up a fourth front. The Congress evidently feels up to the adventure, for it has chosen precisely such a moment to do battle with the Mulayam Singh Government in Uttar Pradesh. Citing the "deteriorating" law and order situation in the State, a party spokesperson used the rather imaginative phrase "one time cheque" to describe the nature of the Congress' support to the incumbent Government. For his part, U.P. Congress chief Salman Khursheed threatened a mass agitation and worse against the Chief Minister. There is no small irony here. Bihar, where the Congress has an uneasy relationship with the Rashtriya Janata Dal, is in a state of siege following highly visible protests over an unexplained series of kidnappings. India's VIP capital, New Delhi, boasts a crime rate that hardly does the Shiela Dixit Government credit. U.P.'s record on this score is not much better. The State, known for its mafia dons and caste lynchpins, has a tradition of political murders, the latest being the assassination of Bahujan Samaj Party legislator Raju Pal. With the deed inflaming passions among the BSP cadre, party leader Mayawati has predictably sought the dismissal of archrival Mulayam Singh.

The Congress' moves in U.P. must be seen in conjunction with its recent overtures to Ms. Mayawati. A key giveaway is the easing of pressure on the BSP chief in the Taj Corridor case. The Congress evidently calculates that terminating its relationship with the Samajwadi Party will facilitate an alliance with the BSP, which, in turn, will pave the way for the party's much dreamt of recovery in the Hindi heartland. Alas, that looks a pipedream — at least for now. The noises in the Congress camp notwithstanding, the party will achieve nothing concrete by withdrawing its support to the Mulayam Singh Government. Indeed, the Samajwadi Party has consolidated its position since winning a creditable 35 seats (38 with allies) in the 14th general election. Besides, the BSP is an unreliable ally. The party has thrice broken up with the Bharatiya Janata Party. As well known is Ms. Mayawati's lack of enthusiasm for pre-poll alliances: she feels they work to the disadvantage of the Dalit party and has often made the untested claim that while her votes are easily transferred to the BJP or the Congress, the converse is not true.

The Congress has embarked on similar short-sighted missions in Bihar and Jharkhand — no doubt in the hope of reclaiming its past prestige. In Bihar, the many `friendly' contests between the Congress and the Rahstriya Janata Dal have only added to the confusion of the electorate. In Jharkhand, the party's hasty alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has alienated the RJD as well as its own rank and file. Last week, Sarfaraz Ahmad, a valued State leader, defected to the RJD in a telling sign that the constituents of the United Progressive Alliance are fighting each other as much as they are the BJP and the Janata Dal (U). In Maharashtra too, the Congress' relations with the Nationalist Congress Party are under strain, as is apparent from the former's inability to retain the prestigious Solapur Assembly seat. Of course, the BJP is in a sorrier mess. The unpredictable Atal Bihari Vajpayee recently ascribed part of the blame for the post-Godhra Gujarat pogrom to the BJP cadre. Earlier Lal Krishna Advani admitted the poor prognosis for his party in the Assembly elections. If the Congress is better placed, it seems marginally so — and no thanks to its own tactics.

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