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Friday, Feb 18, 2005

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The stakes in Lebanon

By Vaiju Naravane

Syria is in the dock over the assassination of former Lebanon Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

THE BRUTAL assassination of Rafiq Hariri, former Lebanese Prime Minister and the mastermind behind the reconstruction of Beirut, has shaken the Middle East. Some 200,000 people spilled out on to the streets of Beirut for his funeral, which became the occasion for an outpouring of anger at continued Syrian presence in Lebanon.

French President Jacques Chirac who was in Beirut to condole with the family of his close friend, called for an international enquiry into the bomb blast so that "light could be shed" on who ordered Monday's massive bomb attack that killed 15 persons, including Hariri and his close bodyguards and injured over 100 others. This demand was summarily rejected by the Lebanese Interior Minister, Suleiman Franjieh, who said his country was more than capable of carrying out its own enquiry that would be both "proper and thorough."

Hariri resigned as Prime Minister of Lebanon four months ago in protest against the continued presidency of pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud and was tipped to win the country's next election at the head of an anti-Syrian opposition movement.

Analysts here said the assassination of Rafiq Hariri was a deliberate blow to France, given the close personal ties between Mr. Chirac, and the slain former Prime Minister. France, which maintains close ties with its former colony, is one of the co-sponsors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 calling for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon. Syria has about 14,000 troops in Lebanon and virtually rules that country.

Antoine Basbous, president of the Observatory of Arab Countries said: "This killing was of course a message to the Lebanese opposition, but it was also a warning to Paris, as if to say, `We are now masters here, so keep out,'" Mr. Basbous added.

Mr. Basbous' remarks were echoed by another respected Lebanese scholar and writer, Antoine Sfeir, editor of the newsletter Cahiers de l'Orient.

"I am convinced this attack — the most significant since the end of Lebanon's war — was a message directed at Chirac himself. The evidence suggests that the murder is a response to U.N. Security Council resolution 1559 voted in September 2004 at the initiative of France and the U.S. It was Jacques Chirac who was the real architect of the resolution," he said.

However, fingers were also being pointed at Israel. A former Egyptian Ambassador to Paris quoted by French radio said: "Why would the Syrians want to make life even more difficult for themselves at a time when Washington has its guns trained on them? It would be in the interest of Israel to increase Syria's isolation vis-à-vis the West. The Israelis are fully capable of carrying out an attack of such sophistication."

Responsibility for the attack was claimed by a shadowy Jihadi group on Al Jazeera television who said Rafiq Hariri had been murdered because for his close links to the Saudi royal family.

Syria was quick to denounce the slaying with President Bashr al-Assad describing the attack as an "odious crime aimed at destroying Lebanese national unity and peace." Syria's Ambassador to France, Siba Nasser, denied her country had any role in the killing of Hariri and said Syrian troops were stationed in Lebanon at the request of the Lebanese Government. Syria sent troops to Lebanon following the outbreak of civil war in that country in 1976. Since then Damascus has exercised almost total control over Lebanon and although the number of Syrian troops are now down — to 14,000 from a high of 35,000 at the height of the civil war, Lebanon continues to be a satellite state.

Hariri's disappearance therefore clearly safeguards Syrian interests. There is no doubt he would have been re-elected Prime Minister in the upcoming elections in Lebanon and would have increased the pressure, with backing from France and the U.S., for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.

The assassination of the former Prime Minister is a challenge not just to Paris and Washington — but to the whole international community — by a Syria that is increasingly isolated, even in the Arab world. Without directly accusing Syria, the United States has seized on the assassination to increase international and bilateral pressure on Damascus.

The Americans feel that even if Syria was not directly behind Hariri's slaying, its troops and heavy-handed presence in Lebanon are destabilising enough to create the conditions for the assassination.

But U.S. officials remained vague on whether they plan any further action.

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