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Early budget adds to poll rumours

By V. Jayanth

CHENNAI, FEB. 21. The Government's decision to go for early budget presentation has again sparked rumours of an earlier than scheduled election to the Assembly.

Normally, it is presented in the third or fourth week of March, after assimilating the tax proposals of the Union budget, presented on February 28. Last year, the State budget was presented on February 11, as the Lok Sabha had been dissolved and a general election was scheduled for May 2004.

The two preceding years the budget was unveiled by Finance Minister C. Ponnaiyan March 28 and 21. This year, within two days of the Union budget, Tamil Nadu will come out with its edition. According to official sources, the exercise began soon after the Governor's address to the legislature on January 31.

Expectations are it will be "a soft, election-eve budget irrespective of when the Assembly poll is held." Given the mood of the Government and the need to "win over people," industry and trade sources emphasise that Chief Minister Jayalalithaa will go in for a "growth, development and welfare-oriented budget," keeping in mind post-tsunami exigencies in 13 districts.

Aside from the budget proposals, the Finance Ministry, in coordination with other departments, notably Revenue and Rehabilitation, is going in for "larger than usual" Final Supplementary Estimates for the fiscal 2004-05. This has become essential in view of the high spending on tsunami relief and rehabilitation measures implemented from December 26 last. Though the State has taken recourse to Calamity Relief and Contingency funds, the availability was low and the Government authorised expenditure from its own contingency and reserve funds on the understanding that it will be brought before the House in the Final Supplementary Estimates.

Buoyancy in collection

Though there are obvious concerns over revenue and budget deficits which are bound to arise from the enhanced expenditure, the buoyancy in revenue collections this year has provided some cushion to the Government. Except in the Centre's grant-in-aid, the collections till December were "very encouraging," crossing the 70 per cent level in many areas and even touching 80 per cent in one or two categories. Buoyancy in the economy also means an enhanced transfer of funds from the Central pool.

With the World Bank clearing the health and road sector projects, the State is expected to embark on them in the coming year. Otherwise, it is expected to be a spending budget, focussing as much on infrastructure as well as welfare, enquiries show.

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