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Tuesday, Mar 01, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Europe's try for one Constitution

By Vaiju Naravane

Despite the qualified success of the referendum in Spain, the European Union Constitution faces a tougher battle for approval in Britain, France, and the Czech Republic.

EUROPEAN LEADERS are congratulating Spain on becoming the first European nation to ratify the EU's new Constitution. 77 per cent of those voting said "Yes" to the document that is expected to substantially change the way the Union is governed.

And yet, victory was overshadowed by the low turnout. Just 42 per cent of Spain's electorate of 34.6 million bothered to vote, making this the lowest voter participation since Spain established a democracy in 1978. More than 76 per cent of the electorate voted in the general election that brought the Spanish socialist party (PSOE) to power in March last year, while 45 per cent voted in the European elections in June.

This was the fourth referendum Spain has held since the restoration of democracy following the death in 1975 of dictator General Francisco Franco and although the favourable outcome was never in doubt, the vote divided opinion in the country's regional powerhouses of Catalonia in the northeast and the Basque region in the northwest.

The Spanish Government and the EU used every trick in the publicity book to get voters interested in the debate over the Constitution. Celebrities were asked to read parts of the Constitution on radio and television shows, Spanish footballers were called in to endorse the document, brandishing quotes from the Constitution around the pitch and participants in the Spanish equivalent of the Big Brother TV reality show were roped in and coached to discuss its salient points during prime time viewing. All to no avail.

Nearly 58 per cent of Spanish voters stayed away from last Sunday's poll. Paradoxically however, those who do did vote declared themselves massively in favour of the new EU Constitution. In spite of the disappointing turnout, Spanish Socialists hailed the result as a clear victory for supporters of a European Constitution at the start of a complex referendum season.

Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero decided very early on that Spain would be the first country to hold a referendum on the Constitution to underscore his Government's commitment to Europe. After voting on Sunday morning, he urged citizens to vote "to open the door to a stronger and more united Europe" and in one of the few quotable quotes that marked this campaign described the referendum as an "arm of mass construction." Although Spain's leaders are crowing victory, it is doubtful if this vote will set a trend in Europe for referenda to be held in Britain, France, and the Czech Republic.

In Spain the Constitution created divisions amongst the regions. While mainstream moderate nationalists favour the proposed text, pro-independence Basque radicals voted against. The issue of "national identity" within the European Union is something both "yes" and "no" camps want addressed. In a Europe of peoples they wish to be recognised as having their own separate identity rather than be submerged by the Spanish state.

For the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), in government in the Basque regional parliament, the Constitution represents "a step in the right direction." The party nonetheless continues to hope the treaty can be tweaked in the future to "establish a European political space ... respectful of regional diversities."

In contrast, the banned, hardline pro-independence Batasuna, the political wing of armed separatist group ETA, opposed the Constitution which they see as "ignoring the reality of peoples [and] their languages." The proposed text defends a "Europe of states" which "denies the right of self-determination" to the continent's peoples, one of the main demands of hardline Basque nationalists, the party said.

Moderate Catalan nationalists in the powerful Convergence and Unity (CiU) party hesitated long and hard before choosing to support the text. The CiU made its support conditional upon the Madrid Government's agreement to the use of Catalan in Europe.

Abstention rates in both Catalonia and the Basque country were higher than the rest of Spain with analysts pointing to scepticism on the part of militant nationalists.

But the rest of Spain, wholeheartedly pro-European and not unaware of the benefits EU membership has brought their nation, voted "yes". Spain's EU membership has acted as an effective booster rocket for its economy, a key argument used by the Government and the "Yes" camp. According to Jose Antonio Herce, director of Spain's Foundation of Applied Economic Studies (FEDEA), EU membership has provided a "sustainable" boon.

The statistics speak for themselves: Average per capita Spanish GDP on EU entry stood at just 68 per cent of the average for the Union as a whole. In the 18 years that followed it rose 18 percentage points and now stands at 95 per cent of the new average.

Last year, for the tenth year in a row, Spanish economic growth outstripped the EU average as GDP raced ahead 2.6 per cent across 2004, according to a Bank of Spain estimate.

Unemployment, while still at the high end of the EU spectrum, has fallen from 20.6 per cent of the active population in 1986 to 10.38 per cent last year, which saw 461,300 new jobs created.

Spanish infrastructure has grown apace, the country now boasting 8,000 kilometres of motorways and highways criss-crossing the country, with official figures showing that EU development funds amounted to 40 per cent of the cost of building them. In all, Spain received more than 105 billion euros (81 billion euros at current rates) in EU aid between 1987 and 2003, according to official figures.

But despite the success, albeit mitigated of the Spanish referendum, the European Union Constitution faces a tougher battle for approval in Britain, France, and the Czech Republic.

The Constitution must be approved by a majority of EU member-states between now and mid-2006, either by a referendum or by a vote of parliament. Lithuania, Hungary and Slovenia have already obtained parliamentary approval.

For now, Britain is the only country where opinion polls show opponents of the Constitution outnumbering its supporters, although the "No" vote is making steady and worrisome headway in France as well. Recent opinion polls indeed show that a good quarter of Britons would vote no. However, a Mori poll conducted last September also showed that 19 per cent were undecided, 23 per cent leaning against, but ready to change their opinion if they were convinced the Constitution was good for Britain. So the situation in Britain remains iffy.

In the Czech Republic, Parliament is divided over the Constitution and has still not passed the special law needed to organise a referendum. Czech Prime Minister Stanislav Gross' pro-European centre-left coalition enjoys a narrow majority in the House of Deputies and is not in a position to muster the required three-fifths majority to secure parliamentary ratification of the Constitution.

In January, the Czech Republic's Eurosceptic right-wing opposition Civic Democrats (ODS) introduced a bill to hold a referendum on the Constitution before the end of the year. Gross has repeatedly said he would like a referendum to be held simultaneously with parliamentary elections in June 2006, arguing that an extensive awareness campaign about the Constitution has to be arranged first.

Of all the worst-case scenarios, only a French "non" would seriously call into question the EU's future, according to experts. Although the latest opinion polls indicate that is unlikely, President Jacques Chirac has expressed concern that the issue could be confused in voters' minds with Turkey's application to join the EU.

Turkey finally received the green light in December to start EU membership talks later this year. But that decision has apparently only fuelled criticism that the EU may be overstretching itself. France, one of the original six countries that founded the EU's forerunner, is already worried about its waning influence over a 25-member bloc in which English is increasingly the lingua franca.

French Prime Minister Jean Pierre Raffarin said recently that an early date, possibly April 2005 will be fixed for the holding of the referendum. There is increasing worry in President Chirac's ruling conservative UMP party that an increasing "No" vote might carry the day.

Such a vote could be interpreted as a disavowal of the conservatives and a lack of confidence in Mr. Chirac himself.

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