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Wednesday, Mar 02, 2005

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Opinion - Editorials

TIGHTENING THE SCREWS

IN ANNOUNCING THAT it has suspended all arms supplies to the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) following the February 1 coup d'etat by King Gyanendra, India has taken the salutary step of publicly registering its inclination and ability to take punitive steps against the monarchical regime for its illegitimate seizure of power. Given the Indian security establishment's concerns about the growing strength of the Maoist insurgents across the border, King Gyanendra had assumed New Delhi would not interrupt the flow of weapons already in the pipeline. Among the materiel Kathmandu had sought from India before the coup itself were mortars, troop-carrying vehicles — including some three dozen mine-proof personnel carriers — machine guns, night vision goggles, and Cheetah helicopters. One can only assume that this substantial wish-list was framed with the idea of launching intensified counter-insurgency operations following the coup that the RNA brass must surely have known was in the works. India's announcement that weapon supplies have been put on hold — accompanied as it was by a similar statement from the British Government that it too had suspended a planned $2.5 million (non-lethal) military aid package to the RNA — should ordinarily have put paid to the King's plans to win legitimacy for himself by registering tactical victories against the Maoists on the battlefield. Early indications, however, suggest the King is still hell bent on pursuing a purely military approach to the insurgency.

Since the coup, the RNA has stepped up its operations in more than 30 districts across the country. Its tactics have been brutal, as indeed have been the methods of the Maoists — who showed no compunction in attacking civilians in order to enforce their country-wide bandh. The initial response of Kathmandu's monarcho-military regime to the imposition of a de facto arms embargo by India and Britain has also been one of bravado. Officials there have said Nepal will source the required arms from elsewhere if need be, though it is hard to imagine other countries such as Pakistan and China stepping into the breach. The United States gave $2 million worth of military aid to Nepal last year and has another $1.5 million in the pipeline. Officials have publicly threatened to cut off supplies unless King Gyanendra takes urgent measures to restore democracy.

The Manmohan Singh Government firmly believes the King and the RNA alone cannot defeat the Maoists and that by pushing the political parties into the same camp as the insurgents, the Palace has scored an own goal. King Gyanendra, however, sees things differently. By using the army decisively, he hopes not only to defeat the Maoists but also to turn the clock back on the 1990 power-sharing agreement between the Palace and the political parties. India, which assisted the Nepali democratic forces in their struggle to curb the power of the late King Birendra, will now have to evaluate its options in the face of King Gyanendra's revanchism. As a repeat of the 1989 blockade will inconvenience ordinary Nepalis and serve no purpose other than allowing the Palace to rally nationalist support around itself, other regime-specific punitive measures need to be considered. Priority must be given to seeking the release of political leaders, journalists and human rights defenders, an end to press censorship, and the restoration of civil liberties as well as multi-party democracy. Until these minimum steps are taken, New Delhi should contemplate a travel ban on the King and his associates and collaborators, and the freezing of their personal bank accounts in India.

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