The Hindu : International : New Zealand fears pandemic

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Mar 12, 2005

International

International

New Zealand fears pandemic

WELLINGTON, MARCH 11. Thousands of New Zealanders could die and more than 750,000 could be sickened if the bird flu virus mutates and triggers a pandemic, severely straining the nation's health care resources, researchers said in an article published on Friday.

The death toll from the first wave of a pandemic could reach 6,200 from 20,806 cases of serious illness, the researchers reported in the New Zealand Medical Journal.

Overall, the number of New Zealanders sickened would probably range between 325,000 and 759,000, based on a computer model created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the researchers said.

One out of every four people in the nation of 4 million could consult a doctor or hospital, severely straining New Zealand's medical resources, they said.

At least 16,000 persons would need urgent hospital treatment, and ``it is likely that these levels would overwhelm current hospital capacity for much of the epidemic,'' said the report, by a research team led by Wellington School of Medicine senior lecturer Nick Wilson. — AP

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