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Wednesday, Apr 06, 2005

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STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

POLITICS MAKES FOR strange bedfellows, but never without a reason. The statement by the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, K.S. Sudarshan, that his organisation supported the Congress in the Kerala Assembly election in 2001 to keep the Communist Party of India (Marxist) out of power embarrassed both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. However, for the RSS, the issue was quite simple and straightforward. To defeat its worst enemy, the Left spearheaded by the CPI (M), the RSS does not mind joining hands with its biggest enemy, the Congress. Evidently, the short-term tactic of backing the Congress in 2001 fitted into its long-term strategy of cramping the political space for the Communists. Wherever it faces a strong challenge from the Left, the RSS has been known to leave the fight with the Congress for another day. In the 1984 Lok Sabha election that followed the assassination of Indira Gandhi and the genocidal pogrom against Sikhs carried out by Congress elements, the RSS endorsed the ruling party's tough line against Sikh separatism.

After all, as RSS leaders have repeatedly pointed out, the support for the BJP is not unconditional. As Mr. Sudarshan once remarked: "Every government is ours, regardless of who heads it." In the polarised political situation of Kerala, the RSS is not strong enough to make the BJP an electoral force. But in closely fought contests between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front, it believes it can make all the difference to the poll outcome. In the 2001 Kerala Assembly election, the BJP polled only 5.02 per cent of the total valid vote. The result was a sweep for the UDF. In the 2004 Lok Sabha election in Kerala, which saw the LDF winning 18 of the 20 seats, the BJP polled 10.4 per cent of the vote. This is what lends some credence to Mr. Sudarshan's statement. When the BJP polls a low percentage of the vote, the gainer is undoubtedly the Congress. Clearly, RSS sympathisers have been willing to transfer their vote to the Congress, but not to the Left parties.

At the same time, it is important to note that the National Democratic Alliance performed above expectations in Kerala only in the 14th general election. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, when there was no big swing one way or the other, the NDA polled 5.5 percentage points less than in 2004. A major part of the increased vote share of the NDA in 2004 came from just two constituencies — Thiruvananthapuram, where a senior BJP leader and Ministerial aspirant, O. Rajagopal, contested, and Muvattupuzha, which was won by an implausible ally, the Indian Federal Democratic Party. Thus, to credit the RSS with the ability to tilt the electoral scales in India's socially most advanced State might not be quite in order. Yet there is no disputing that the BJP found a covert understanding with the Congress beneficial in successive Assembly elections, where it did not have high stakes. However, while the RSS has no qualms about supporting the Congress for its own reasons, the Congress, while happy to receive such backing, has been unwilling to acknowledge it. Thanks to Mr. Sudarshan, this nexus has now become public knowledge.

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