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Monday, Apr 11, 2005

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Crisis in Lebanon

By Chinmaya R. Gharekhan

Unless the political and religious groups display wisdom in tackling the crisis that developed after Rafiq Hariri's assassination, Lebanon could slip back into a civil war like the one it experienced from 1975 until 1990.

THE ASSASSINATION of the former Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafiq Hariri, on February 14, 2005 has hit the small Mediterranean nation like a small tsunami. The impact of the forces it has unleashed is difficult to assess now but it will surely be felt beyond the confines of Lebanon. Unless the various political and religious groups display maturity and wisdom, the country could slip back into a civil war like the one it experienced from 1975 until 1990.

Lebanon has a population of about four million, just over a quarter of Delhi's population. There are as many as 18 religious groups, but for political purposes, it is divided into roughly equal proportions among Sunnis, Shias and Christians. The Druze, a sect of Shias, constitute around 10 per cent of the population, and are extremely influential, thanks mainly to the leadership of the Jumblat family.

The Lebanese Constitution provides for safeguards to ensure that no single confessional group, as religious groups are described there, monopolises power. Thus, the President has to be a Christian, the Speaker a Shia and the Prime Minister a Sunni. The Commander of the Armed Forces must be a Christian and the troops have to maintain a ratio of 50:50 between Muslims and Christians. All these arrangements may not seem to conform to commonly-understood democratic norms but they have worked for Lebanon, so far.

The current crisis owes its origin to the amendment of the Constitution in September 2004 which made it possible for Emile Lahoud, the Christian Maronite President, to be re-elected for an additional, but abbreviated, three-year term. Rafiq Hariri was most reluctant to support the constitutional amendment but, according to all Lebanese accounts, was prevailed upon by Syria to go along. Hariri resigned following the constitutional amendment. Soon thereafter, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1559 which called for the withdrawal of all foreign, meaning Syrian, forces from Lebanon. Hariri was widely believed to have worked with France and the United States in having the resolution pushed through the Security Council. His popularity with the Lebanese people increased beyond the Sunni population. The history of the Syrian presence in Lebanon is quite complex. Syrian forces first went to Lebanon in the 1970s to protect the Christian population and stayed on after Israel occupied a swath of southern Lebanon and established its own security zone inside Lebanese territory in 1982. The presence of the Syrian troops was legitimised by the Taef agreement in 1989. However, when Israel vacated southern Lebanon in 2000, the Lebanese people thought there was no longer any justification in Syria maintaining a presence in their country.

Hariri had a sophisticated system of personal security. His convoy always consisted of three identical black Mercedes vehicles, one of which he drove himself. His assassination is further confirmation that there is no such thing as foolproof security. The identity of the assassins remains a mystery. The day after Hariri's murder, the Security Council asked the Secretary-General to "follow closely the situation in Lebanon and to report urgently on the circumstance, causes and consequences of this terrorist act". It was perhaps not wise to give such a broad, political mandate to a fact-finding mission which was headed by a police officer. The mission, sure enough, did not reach any conclusion regarding the causes of the assassination nor about the identity o f the perpetrators. It only reported that the assassination took place in an atmosphere polarised around the Syrian influence in Lebanon. The Security Council will shortly ask the Secretary-General to establish an international investigation commission to get at the truth.

The circumstances of Hariri's death have galvanised and united hitherto rival sections of Lebanese society into demanding the truth — Haqiqa in Arabic. All sorts of conspiracy theories are doing the rounds in Beirut, but no one in any responsible position, even in the Opposition, is pointing the finger at Syria, though nearly all of them want Syrian forces to leave Lebanon. Syria vehemently denies any role in Hariri's assassination and reminds everyone that it had absolutely nothing to gain from it. Lebanon's President, Emile Lahoud, whose extension in office Hariri did his best to prevent, told me that whoever killed Hariri was an enemy of Lebanon.

Hariri, in his death, has emerged as an even larger figure than he was in his lifetime. He came to occupy the office of Prime Minister after the end of the brutal and brutalising civil war. A self-made billionaire who made his money in Saudi Arabia, Hariri rebuilt Lebanon after the civil war. He invited foreign corporations to invest in Lebanon and made huge strides in recreating Lebanon of the pre-civil war era. Beirut once again became a popular tourist resort for the Arab world.

International media flocked to Beirut which regained its proud position of being the intellectual and media centre of West Asia. Hariri started his political career as the leader of the Sunnis and ended up, more so after his death, by being acknowledged as the leader of certainly a large majority of the Lebanese people. Nabih Berry, the leader of the Shia group, Amal, and Speaker of Parliament, told me that Hariri was the only person he knew who combined in himself three assets: immense wealth, immense ability and immense dynamism.

Lebanon is very tense today. In the wake of Hariri's death, the government of the day resigned but the Prime Minister was asked to form a new government. He has the necessary majority to do so, but he is insisting on forming a government of national unity together with the Opposition. The Opposition, however, is unwilling to support this. If the government is not formed within a few days — it might be too late already — the elections, due by the end of May, might have to be postponed. The Opposition does not want that either. In fact, it is accusing the Prime Minister of deliberately delaying forming the Government so that the elections can be postponed. One possible solution being considered is the formation of a `neutral' government or a government of `wise' men and women. Bahia Hariri, MP and sister of the late Prime Minister, is increasingly mentioned as a consensus prime ministerial candidate.

Another notable feature of the current scene is the respect in which the Hizbollah, the Party of Allah, is held by nearly all sections of society. The Lebanese people might be unhappy with the Syrian presence on their soil, but they deeply resented Israeli occupation of a sizeable chunk of their territory from 1982 until 2000. The Hizbollah is given the credit by everyone, including the present government, for the liberation of south Lebanon.

Furthermore, the Hizbollah is not using its militia for any violent activity in the country. Indeed, its members are increasingly merging into the mainstream of political life. Already, a dozen Hizbollah members are in the present Parliament; their numbers are expected to increase after the next election. The external demand for disarming the members of the militia has also been substantially muted in recent weeks.

Terrorist attacks, apparently targeting Christians, have taken place in recent weeks in which a couple of Indians have been the innocent victims. No one in Lebanon believes the country will once again descend into a civil war. One can only hope that they are right.

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