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Friday, Apr 15, 2005

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Government without credibility

IRAQ'S NEW PRESIDENT and Prime Minister have taken up their posts, but this is not to be confused with either legitimate or effective self-government. It took over two months from January 30, the date of the election, for parliament to complete its primary task of selecting personnel to head the executive branch. The interim constitution stipulates that a Presidency Council, consisting of a President and two deputies, can be installed only if it secures the support of over two thirds of the members of parliament. Once it takes office, the Council must pick a Prime Minister who, theoretically, has a free hand to choose his cabinet. The Council of Ministers must win a vote of confidence within two weeks from the date the Prime Minister is named. The party or coalition that has at least half the seats in the legislature will need the support of some other group to reach the two thirds mark. In such a situation, the party that covets the Prime Minister's post has little choice but to offer the presidency to another formation. A coalition of Shia and Kurd parties, which worked out the formula for distributing posts early enough, seemed to have adequate strength to win the constitutionally mandated votes. Within days of the election it was clear that the Kurdish leader, Jalal Talabani, would be the coalition's nominee for President and that he would pick the Shia leader, Ibrahim Jaafri, as Prime Minister. If the new government has taken nearly two months to be born, this was because serious underlying issues remained unresolved.

While the parties in the Shia-Kurd coalition are still squabbling over cabinet portfolios, this is not considered the real problem. A few key officials such as the new Vice President, Ghazi al Yawar, and Speaker Hajim al Hassani are Sunnis, but it is widely recognised that they do not represent a deeply alienated people. The armed resistance to the occupation is very much alive: on Thursday, two car bombings near the Interior Ministry building in Baghdad, and attacks in the northern city of Kirkuk, claimed at least 11 lives and injured dozens. The coalition hopes to check the armed resistance by wooing some resistance leaders into the coalition. An association of clerics believed to be close to some Sunni insurgent leaders has indicated that they would consider joining the government only after the United States set a date for pulling its troops out of Iraq. To complicate matters, a Shia group has taken to the streets to press for the withdrawal of foreign troops. While the main Shia parties are clear that Islam must be the sole source of the law, the Kurds oppose any change in the language of the interim constitution, which recognises Islam as one of the sources of legislation. Differences over the extent of autonomy to be granted to provinces could snowball if the Sunnis continue to be driven out of Kurd-dominated provinces. Overall, it is clear that the newly formed government of Iraq has little credibility.

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