The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : A prelude to the main battle

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Friday, May 06, 2005

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Opinion - News Analysis

A prelude to the main battle

V. Jayanth

The two upcoming Assembly byelections in Tamil Nadu have a significance beyond the normal.

ON MAY 14, byelections are to be held for two Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu — Kancheepuram and Gummidipoondi. The term of the present State Assembly is to end in barely one year but the byelections could not be avoided, though the State administration was reportedly not too keen on holding them now. But with the date fixed and the election result likely to have political repercussions, the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is determined to retain both the seats. And the Opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which is taking on the ruling party in both constituencies, is worried about what is calls "unfair practices" and "bogus voting" by its archrival.

As far as the AIADMK is concerned, the electoral logic is simple. The party held both the seats in the Assembly till the Kancheepuram MLA died and the Gummidipoondi legislator was murdered by a dacoit gang at his residence. It cannot afford to lose this election. A defeat now will be interpreted by the Opposition as not just a continuation of the verdict of the 2004 Lok Sabha election, but a precursor to the 2006 Assembly elections. So, there can be no room for complacency.

No sooner was the election schedule announced than Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary Jayalalithaa drew up the party's strategy. She selected the candidates — the widow of the deceased MLA in Kancheepuram and the son of the slain MLA in Gummidipoondi. That was considered a step forward — sympathy and continuity. Further, with only a year of tenure left, why bring another candidate into the fray? Then, she formed two teams from her Cabinet for the two areas. The Ministers are going all out to ensure victory.

From the AIADMK's viewpoint, an Assembly election cannot be equated with a contest for Parliament. "The issues are entirely different. Here the people are going to judge us by the performance of the legislator and the Hon'ble Chief Minister's golden governance. This is our winning formula," reasons one of the senior Ministers handling the election campaign. It is an intensive, door-to-door canvassing.

The DMK is not taking it lightly. There is the confidence arising out of the powerful alliance — comprising seven parties — and the impact of "alliance arithmetic." But the Opposition combine is not resting lightly. The DMK has constituted two high-level coordination committees to run the campaign. Aside from party heavyweights such as deputy general secretary M.K. Stalin (Mr. Karunanidhi's son) and treasurer Arcot N. Veerasami, the team of Union Ministers led by Dayanidhi Maran and T.R. Baalu will assist the panels in electioneering. Every attempt is being made to take the allies along at every stage to ensure a cohesive, powerful campaign.

A lot to prove

The DMK and its allies have to prove that the 2004 Lok Sabha victory (they won all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the lone constituency in Pondicherry) was not a one-off. That was a "clear vote against the AIADMK and its anti-people policies as well as its autocratic regime," a party senior explains. But the party functionaries seem wary of the AIADMK's "strengths." The plan is to set up vigilance panels at the booth-level and then take up any violation with the Election Commission. The DMK is looking to the Commission to conduct a "free and fair election."

A loss this time will make things difficult for the AIADMK. The Opposition is bound to say that the ruling party has lost its mandate and the people's support. After all, the Government (read the Chief Minister) has rolled back all the reform measures that "hurt" the people and has recently presented not only a tax-free budget, but announced a clutch of relief and welfare measures touching the lives of most vulnerable sections. If after all this the AIADMK tastes defeat, it may find it a Herculean challenge to recoup for the real election next year. But if it wins, at least one, if not both the seats, it will be in better shape to mount the final offensive next year. And if it wins both, there is the possibility of calling for an early election to cash in on the mood of the people. That is why the May 14 elections assume such significance.

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