The Hindu : International : French "No" in E.U. vote could seal the fate of Constitution

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, May 30, 2005

International

International

French "No" in E.U. vote could seal the fate of Constitution

Vaiju Naravane

Outcome may have a domino effect on other nations

THE BATTLE IN HAND: French President Jacques Chirac waves as he departs from apolling station after casting his vote in a referendum on the E.U. Constitution inSarran, southwestern France, on Sunday. - PHOTO: AP

PARIS: Will France remain true to herself - individualistic, defiant and reckless, or will last-minute reflection lead to prudence and temperance in Sunday's vote on the European Union's first-ever Constitution?

France's 42 million eligible voters are voting in a referendum to approve or reject the Treaty and a largely predicted "No" could seal the fate of the document and plunge the 25-nation European Union into an unprecedented crisis.

Polls opened at 8 a.m. local time and the last polling booths in Paris and Lyon are to close at 10 p.m. local time when the results will be known.

Solid lead

Observers say the warm, sunny day could tempt many undecided voters to leave for a day in the country and give the referendum a miss. Such a development would work against the Yes vote since the No camp is highly motivated and has a solid lead in the polls.

Supporters of President Chirac's centre-right UMP party, its ally the centrist UDF, the Green Party and a section of voters from the deeply split Socialist Party are expected to vote in favour of the Constitution.

Opposition to the treaty has been concentrated at the two extremes of the political spectrum - the Communists and Leftist radicals on the one hand and ultra-nationalists from extreme right parties such as Jean Marie Le Pen's xenophobic National Front or Philippe de Villiers' Movement for France on the other. A section of the Socialist party, led by former Prime Minister Laurant Fabius has joined hands with the treaty's opponents to create a hard core of resistance to the "ultra-liberal dictates of Brussels".

Mr. Chirac is counting on the 20 per cent of undecided voters to swing the vote in favour of a Yes. Opinion polls at the end of the campaign gave the No camp a solid lead, prediction that 55 per cent of the voters would reject the Treaty.

Commentators have described the two months of heated debate over the Constitution as "a new kind of civil war."

Nation divided

Roland Cayrol, the director of the CSA polling institute told The Hindu : "The country is deeply divided. The degree of support for the No vote indicates a deep chasm has opened between the population and the country's ruling elite. On the one hand the popularity of the No vote is an expression of deep seated dissatisfaction with Mr. Chirac's policies and the performance of his Government led by Prime Minister Raffarin. But there is also genuine fear that because of this Constitution, France will lose its influence within the E.U. and that French jobs will suffer because of an influx of cheap labour from other E.U. countries.

Whatever the outcome, there will be a change of Government within the week after the poll. I am more worried however, about how this referendum appears to have split the country, pitted one section of the population against the other."

A French No is expected to let loose a domino effect across Europe. The Dutch are to vote on June 1, three days after the French poll and referenda are to be held in Britain and Poland later this year.

All three countries have a healthy number of euro-sceptics and a French rejection would probably kill the future of the treaty.

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