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Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

After France's dramatic rejection, what next?

Vaiju Naravane

Rejection by France makes the European Constitution a dead letter and the verdict is likely to lead to a gridlocked Europe.

CALLED TO the polls to ratify the first-ever European Constitution on Sunday, the French said an emphatic, unambiguous "no." Their verdict sent shock waves throughout Europe. This is the first time that a large and important founder member of the European Union has opposed further European integration. For the treaty to come into effect the Constitution must be ratified, by referendum or by parliamentary vote, by all the 25 members of the EU. Rejection by France makes this document a dead letter and the verdict is likely to lead to a gridlocked Europe, where narrow national interests take precedence over a pan-European compromise. The vote signifies an unambiguous refusal of the EU in its present shape and form, which the majority of French voters consider too pro-business and ultra-liberal.

This verdict has also had the effect of a tidal wave in national politics. Almost 55 per cent of the electorate rejected the document. And although the victory of the "no" camp had been largely predicted in opinion polls, it did not in any way take away from the magnitude of the defeat suffered by the leaders of the "yes" camp, starting with President Jacques Chirac and including the Centre-Right UDF and Socialist parties.

Concluded in spring 2004 between the EU's 25 member-nations, the constitution aimed at improving the way it functions. The present Treaty of Nice that governs the EU was widely considered obsolete and new institutions were needed to streamline the working of an EU enlarged to 25. The proposed constitution, drafted by a convention led by former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, includes provisions for an elected EU president and foreign minister and gives extended powers to the EU Parliament. It also includes, in Part III, the notion that EU business will be conducted on the basis of a non-subsidised free market economy.

It is around this chapter that the Leftist opponents of the constitution campaign built up their case. The French Communist Party (PCF), the Trotskyist party and the Revolutionary Communist league (LCR), along with large sections of the Green Party and rebels from the mainstream Socialist Party that had called for a "yes" vote, argued that the constitution was pro-business and anti-worker. The leaders of the "no" vote in the Leftist camp have emerged victorious from the referendum.

But it is Mr. Chirac who has received the most brutal blow. He now has the difficult task of convincing France's EU partners that his country remains deeply committed to the European project despite having flung out the Constitution on its ear. He will also have to explain the significance of this rejection. He will have to do this from a position of fragility and weakness, as a leader who no longer enjoys the confidence of his people.

It was a badly shaken Mr. Chirac who made a short, televised speech just a few minutes after the devastating results came through. He said he had "taken note" of the electorate's verdict and promised a "new impulse" to his action. He also called on his compatriots to rally together in the defence of France's "national interest," in other words behind him, in his role as the head of state and guarantor of the French Constitution.

This is President Chirac's third consecutive electoral defeat following regional and European elections in spring last year. President Chirac chose to ignore those warning calls, refusing to dump his immensely unpopular Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. The extent of the present defeat will oblige him to change tack and nominate a new Prime Minister, in all probability the present Interior and former Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin. But will that change much?

Mr. Chirac also appears overwhelmed by the rivalry, lack of unity and jostling within his own ruling UMP Party. In contrast to Mr. Chirac's listless address, his main rival, UMP general secretary Nicolas Sarkozy, said the vote should lead to a "major turning point in our economic and social policy." But because of his dislike of his younger rival, it is unlikely that Mr. Chirac will nominate the extremely popular Mr. Sarkozy for Prime Minister. His change of government is therefore likely to anger voters further and could damage his party's chances in the presidential and legislative polls that are only two years away.

Socialist Party general secretary Francois Hollande, one of the losers of the referendum with President Chirac, expressed the Left's disgust at the Conservatives' lack of dynamism when he said: "We can hope for nothing from Jacques Chirac and should harbour no illusion about the next government. It will be the same policy, with alas, the same results as before."

Political observers in Paris are hard put to understand what they describe as Mr. Chirac's "suicidal behaviour." In 1997, he dissolved Parliament despite having a comfortable majority and lost the elections ushering in another round of co-habitation (where the President and the Prime Minister belong to opposing political families). In the 2002 presidential poll, Mr. Chirac won 82 per cent of the vote, benefiting from the Leftist vote that was transferred to him to bar the way to ultra Right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. But he dilapidated that capital too, with the result that Mr. Chirac enters the last two years of his reign disavowed by the public and with his domestic and international image in tatters. There is no hope for a third term for Mr. Chirac. In terms of domestic politics, the referendum of May 29 will have been his swansong.

On the international stage too, Mr. Chirac is likely to become an object of ridicule. A couple of weeks ago he said in an interview that he "would have great trouble carrying a negative message from France to international summits abroad." Mr. Chirac's enemies, from President George W. Bush to the leaders of small European nations to whom he easily and often trotted out moral lessons, are probably savouring his defeat.

A shout of anger and despair

The French vote was, above all, a cry of pain, a shout of anger and despair at the bankruptcy and lethargy of the ruling classes. "In such a scenario of generalised disaffection, there were men and women who exploited the feeling of fear and incertitude. We now find ourselves faced with a disaster fuelled by populist politics. This tidal wave has in fact been a referendum on and a rejection of several things at once and has crushed everything that came in its path: European construction, EU enlargement, the elites, structural reform, the regulation of liberalism, internationalism and even generosity," commented Serge July, editor of the Leftist daily Liberation.

The French vote, he says, was one that expressed fear and protectionism. Fear that the French industry will be uprooted to be re-implanted in cheaper areas of Europe such as Poland or the Baltic republics. Fear of a vast wave of cheap labour coming from Eastern Europe to snatch away French jobs. Fear of losing the generous social security, health and retirement benefits that French workers enjoy. On the extreme Right, this fear was also supplemented by a hatred of the governing elites and the fear of losing French sovereignty. The referendum ended up pitting the elites against the people, poorer blue and white collar workers against the educated upper and middle classes. It also pitted wealthy inner cities against poorer suburbs and the countryside. To Jean-Marie le Pen's xenophobic voters, this "no" was also a means of keeping Turkey — Muslim and foreign — outside the EU forever.

"France has cut off its nose to spite its face. The `no' vote was carried forward by a destructionist élan that is difficult to comprehend. After this irresponsible drunken revelry, France is going to find itself suffering from one of the worst hangovers in its history," a senior diplomat in Brussels told The Hindu. "The French vote will give rise to a paradox. We will now be governed by the Nice Treaty which is more ultra-liberal than the Constitution could ever be. EU institutions will be even more ungovernable than before. French Leftist leaders say they will renegotiate the treaty. That is absurd. There are 25 member-states. Each nation wants something different. The constitution was a fruit of four years of negotiation and of compromise. On what basis will they negotiate now? And who will wish to negotiate and on what? The French will realise that the Leftist parties who sold them the `no' vote on a string of half-truths have no political project to speak of. Where do they think we can go from here," he asked bitterly.

The immediate aftermath of the French "no" will be a debate within the EU on whether there is any point in carrying on with the ratification process. The British are of the opinion that the constitution should be laid to rest and other avenues explored for an exit from this impasse. It is likely, however, that the ratification process will continue because, as Luxemburg leader Jean Claude Junker said, 45 million French voters should not be allowed to snatch away the right of franchise of the rest. Clearly turbulent times lie ahead, both for France and for Europe.

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