The Hindu : International : Polls predict Dutch will vote ``No''

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Wednesday, Jun 01, 2005

International

International

Polls predict Dutch will vote ``No''

60 per cent of the people express themselves against E.U. Constitution

AMSTERDAM: As Dutch leaders made an 11th-hour plea for a ``yes'' vote on the European Union constitution, polls suggested a disillusioned public will reject the charter in a referendum on Wednesday by an even larger margin than the stunning ``no'' delivered by France.

A second repudiation within a week would likely be fatal for the document and force the leaders of the 25-member bloc to reconsider the direction of European integration when they gather in two weeks in Brussels.

``When two member founding states vote no, it looks like a big crisis,'' said Aurore Wanlin, an analyst with the London-based Centre for European Reform.

Crisis for Premier

It also would be a debacle for Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, reinforcing his image as an ineffective leader. But unlike in France, even a decisive rejection was unlikely to lead to resignations or a Cabinet shake-up.

Two polls published late on Monday indicated opinion is running at close to 60 per cent against the constitution, showing even greater resistance than in France, which voted 55-45 to reject the treaty.

But the margin could be even wider if supporters decide the battle is lost and stay away from the polling stations, said pollster Maurice de Hond.

``I think the French `no' will definitely affect the turnout. I think it will make it easier for people who are wondering how to vote to vote `no' as well because the Netherlands will not be isolated if we vote `no,''' said Lousewies van der Laan, a Parliament member of the D-66 party which supports the constitution.

In one of his final appeals, Mr. Balkenende pleaded that the Netherlands must remain at the centre of European decision making. If the Dutch say no, ``then it won't be a discussion with us over the question of how Europe must go on, but one without us,'' he said in the Trouw newspaper.

Neelie Kroes, the Dutch businesswoman appointed E.U. competition commissioner last year, said a no vote would not spell the end of the constitution, and that at least some of it can be salvaged. ``Definitely not,'' she replied when asked if the constitution is dead.

``I'd rather talk about a new international treaty. That we're talking about a constitution at all — I say this with a weak smile — is because of the enthusiasm of the chief author, Giscard d'Estaing,'' Ms. Kroes said, referring to the former French President who led efforts to draft the charter. ``He put a nice title on the thing because he was in an exultant mood. That exaggerated optimism is now being punished,'' Ms. Kroes told the Volkskrant newspaper.

Nay-sayers cite a wide range of reasons for their scepticism, from liberals concerned Holland will lose its independence over such policies as euthanasia and marijuana to right-wingers worried the Dutch will lose control of immigration policies.

``This is purely a protest vote, partly against Europe and partly against our own Government,'' said Johan Huizenge, the Europe analyst for Radio Netherlands.

``The Government miscalculated anti-Europe feelings. It began its campaign too late. When they found Europe was not a popular issue to sell, they became hesitant.''

Major Opposition parties backed Mr. Balkenende's coalition, urging voters to stay focused on the larger issues.

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