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Thursday, Jun 16, 2005

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Why Maya is Memsaab

It is the season of change on the political landscape. First Hindutva ideologue Lal Krishna Advani travels to Pakistan, a shocker in itself. There the Bharatiya Janata Party chief praises Mohammad Ali Jinnah as a "great man" to the horror of party and parivar. The olive branch Ms. Mayawati has held out to the Brahmin community, unfailingly denounced by her as Manuwadi, is a leap of the same magnitude. The Bahujan Samaj Party president recently held a series of "Brahmin jodo sammelans [take the Brahmins along campaign]" in Uttar Pradesh as part of a larger plan to widen the base of her party. What explains this attitudinal change in a party founded in opposition to social oppression and discrimination by the upper castes? Of course, the BSP supped with the enemy, so to speak, when in 1995 it aligned with the BJP. Atal Bihari Vajpayee described the alliance as a "miracle of democracy." The fact nonetheless remained that the party of Hindutva was anathema to Ms. Mayawati and mentor Kanshi Ram. Who can forget the barbs the BSP directed at the BJP? A colourful slogan of the formative years called upon the `Bahujan Samaj' (depressed classes) to "thrash" the upper castes. Even today Ms. Mayawati's favourite term for the BJP is "saampnath" (king cobra). Significantly, each time the BSP and the BJP came together, the former gained at the expense of the latter.

Consider the decline in the BJP's seat and vote share in Uttar Pradesh over the years. From 51 of 84 Lok Sabha seats and a vote share of 32.82 per cent in 1991, it is down today to 10 of 80 seats and a vote share of 22.17 per cent. It is the same story in the State Assembly. In 1991, the BJP held 221 of 425 seats with a vote share of 31.45 per cent. The corresponding figures for 2002 were 88 of 403 seats and a vote share of 20.08 per cent. During the same period, the BSP's Lok Sabha seat tally went up from one to 19 while its share of the popular vote shot up from 8.7 per cent to 24.67 per cent. In the Assembly, its seat tally went up from 12 to 98 and its share of the vote from 9.44 per cent to 23.06 per cent. In other words, while the BJP steadily lost support among the upper and middle castes, the BSP grew by adding votes from other sections to its Dalit base (this despite the many splits in the party). The clue to Ms. Mayawati's seemingly illogical pursuit of the upper castes lies in this fascinating story. In U.P., upper castes account for 20 per cent of the population and Muslims 15 per cent. Ms. Mayawati's advantage is her rock solid Dalit base; a 2004 post-poll survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies found 70 per cent support for the BSP among Dalits. She already has a measure of support among Muslims. Should she win over an influential section of Brahmins, she would in effect replicate the Brahmin-Muslim-Dalit combination that so favoured the Congress. Will the community that once formed U.P.'s ruling elite accept the role reversal that comes with Ms. Mayawati's leadership? That is the BSP chief's challenge.

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