The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : Bird flu

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Jun 17, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

Bird flu — preparing for the worst

Over the past year, the World Health Organisation's warnings about the risk to the global community from the avian influenza, or bird flu, virus of the type A (H5N1) have grown more urgent. Bird flu viruses usually cannot infect humans but H5N1 has shown it can jump the `species barrier' and cause deadly respiratory tract disease in humans. Since December 2003, there have been over a hundred cases of humans infected with H5N1 in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand; half of them ended in death. Most of these people appear to have picked up the virus through some form of contact with infected poultry. But if the virus evolves into a form that is easily transmissible from human to human, an influenza pandemic could sweep across the globe in a matter of months, killing millions and leaving a trail of economic and social havoc in its wake. Avian influenza, the WHO has recently observed, is "the most serious known health threat the world is facing today." Over time, the H5N1 has become more lethal. China reported last month that over a thousand migratory waterbirds have been killed by the H5N1 virus. It has gained the ability to infect more species, including cats and tigers. Last year, there were reports that pigs in China were found carrying H5N1 and now there are similar reports from the Indonesian island of Java. As avian and human flu viruses can both infect pigs and exchange genes, these animals could act as `mixing vessels' that produce flu strains dangerous to humans. This suggests the virus has become more infectious to humans. There is also genetic evidence that the virus is rapidly evolving.

Should a pandemic break out, the options for preventing the spread of the virus are limited. Human trials of vaccines against H5N1 have begun in China and the United States, and more trials are planned in other countries. But the pandemic strain could be significantly different and vaccines against such a strain might not be available for months. Further, manufacturing capacity for flu vaccines is concentrated in the developed countries. The situation is not much better with respect to flu drugs, which must be the first line of defence in the event of a pandemic. The pharmaceutical company Roche has quadrupled production of Tamiflu, which is thought to be the best of the four currently available anti-influenza drugs. But with developed nations stockpiling Tamiflu, production is insufficient to meet global requirements. If India is unable to purchase the drug in sufficient quantity at a reasonable price and if the country's new patent regime prevents indigenous pharmaceutical companies from making oseltamivir (the chemical ingredient in Tamiflu), the Government must not hesitate to enforce the provision in patent law for compulsory licensing. The time to act is now.

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