The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : A tsunami and a reality check

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Friday, Jun 17, 2005

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A tsunami and a reality check

By walking out of Sri Lanka's ruling United People's Freedom Alliance , the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna has forced a much-needed reality check on the state of affairs in the island-nation. A host of political and military undercurrents lie beyond the domestic strains that accompany President Chandrika Kumaratunga's proposal for a Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS). One is an apprehension that the proposal, in its present form, can cascade into a haphazard consociation of sorts between the state and an armed, unchanged, and unrepentant insurgent — the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The other is the jostling for political space by Sri Lanka's key players, each playing for high stakes. The third and equally critical element is the internationalisation of the conflict resolution and post-tsunami reconstruction processes. Rolled against these concepts is the continued angst of the conflict-hit and tsunami-devastated peoples. The immediate aftermath of the JVP's pullout does not point to an imminent collapse of the Government. As the UPFA, with its allies, continues to remain the single largest political grouping in the 225-member House, the United National Front will not be in a position to stake a claim to power.

Advocates of the P-TOMS see in it a step to restart the peace talks, stalled since the LTTE's unilateral March 2003 pullout. Opponents disagree firmly. President Chandrika Kumaratunga's initial way out of the current impasse will have to emerge from a political line-up that foretells a polarisation based on whether or not the LTTE should be engaged, and given a key role, in post-tsunami operations. In its own way, the P-TOMS dynamic has brought the peace and reconstruction debate to where it largely belongs — Sri Lanka's domestic polity. Started as a presidential initiative, the P-TOMS snowballed into an international issue as Sri Lanka's main donors encouraged it. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's nuanced "understanding of and support for these ongoing efforts" that came during the Sri Lankan President's visit to New Delhi in early June formally completed the external phase. Initial indications are that President Kumaratunga will emerge from the current crisis with her credibility as Sri Lanka's first genuinely non-chauvinist head of state and government enhanced. Her larger challenges are in effectively shrinking the space for hardliners, Sinhala as well as Tamil, convincing the detractors that her proposals will ensure a successful socio-political outcome, and winning endorsements for her plans to put a full stop to conflict. The JVP is certainly entitled to its strong views on the "fascist" ways of the LTTE but it would do well to heed sober voices, especially of the Indian Left with whom it has been in friendly contact, and ponder over the larger political consequences of targeting President Kumaratunga's forward-looking democratic agenda. The initiatives taken in the next few weeks by the key political players are likely to determine Sri Lanka's post-tsunami peace prospects.

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