The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : Iran takes a turn to the right

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Thursday, Jun 30, 2005

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Opinion - Editorials

Iran takes a turn to the right

With conservative candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad winning the presidential election in Iran, hardliners in the theocratic establishment control all levers of power in the country. Iranian reformers were left out of the race after their candidates fared poorly in the first round of voting on June 17. Left with little choice, they rallied behind the centrist Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the run-off election held on June 24. This was a last- ditch attempt to preserve at least a part of the gains the forces of democratic liberalism made over the past eight years. The effort to project Mr. Rafsanjani as a reformer failed to convince. He was unable to correct the widespread public perception that he was an integral part of a corrupt, oppressive establishment. The vote against Mr. Rafsanjani appears to have contributed substantially to his opponent's margin of victory. It is ironic that Mr. Ahmadinejad should be the beneficiary of this negative vote since he is in reality an establishment loyalist. He won acceptance as a man of the masses on account of his low-key lifestyle as much as the agenda he seeks to promote. There is no guarantee that he will abide by his promise not to reverse the modest advances towards political, social, and cultural liberalism made during the eight-year tenure of President Mohammed Khatami. Sections of the Iranian people, especially women and youth, supported these reforms. However, like the masses, they too desperately await change in other spheres as well. They want an end to the widespread unemployment, the high rate of inflation, and rampant corruption. A majority clearly bought into the President-elect's promise that he would apply himself to these tasks.

Right-wing ideologues, especially those in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, will be inclined to support an agenda for reform in the spheres Mr. Ahmadinejad intends to focus on. However, these are the sections that have kept conservative clerics in power and looked to them for guidance. The monopoly the right wing of the clergy has exercised for years, while giving reformers limited space for a short period, is a major cause of rot in the system. The President-elect's promise of reform will not be taken seriously if he does not stand up to this powerful segment of his support base. Iran's foreign and national security policies are likely to remain largely unchanged since the elected government has only a limited say in these matters. The office of the Supreme Religious Leader is likely to continue with the hard-line approach on issues such as engagement with the West and the pursuit of a nuclear programme. There will be a difference once Mr. Ahmadinejad and his cabinet are sworn in. The Khatami Government did try to be a little flexible in its dealings with the West. Mr. Ahmadinejad as President will have his task cut out as he tries to deal with diverse, contradictory pressures.

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