NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast on Wednesday that the rainfall during the current month would be normal, at 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent.

This bodes well for the agriculture sector as July is the crucial month for the kharif crop. Out of the four monsoon months from June to September, July is the month of maximum rainfall. The monsoon turned out to be deficient last year mainly on account of suppressed rainfall during the month because of an unexpected development of El Nino.

IMD also issued region-wise seasonal forecasts: the rainfall is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA in the south peninsula and the north-east, 95 per cent of the LPA in the north-west and 102 per cent of LPA in central India. The forecasts are with a model error of plus or minus eight per cent. South peninsula comprises Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The north-east region covers West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkand, besides the north-eastern States.

The north-west region consists of Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan.

The central Indian region covers Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa and Goa.

In addition, IMD issued an updated forecast for the prospects of rainfall during the monsoon season as a whole and for the country in its entirety: the rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus four per cent.

The forecast is almost the same as that made in April-end. The only difference is that IMD has scaled down the probability for the rainfall to be near normal or above. In April, it had stated that there was a 75 per cent probability for the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole to be near normal or above. Wednesday's forecast has scaled down it down to 70 per cent.

IMD noted that as of now, there appeared to be very little possibility of the El Nino problem cropping up this year. But, the situation could change in future.

"The latest El Nino predictions suggest higher probability for near neutral conditions during the next three to four months. However, the likely evolution of SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies over the Pacific Ocean remains a matter of uncertainty. IMD is carefully monitoring the developments,'' an IMD press release said.

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