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Why the Congress wants Rane

Kalpana Sharma

The Congress' decision to woo Narayan Rane has been taken to gain in the Konkan as also to check the NCP's advance in the region.

FOES TURN FRIENDS: Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh with Narayan Rane in Mumbai on Monday. — Photo: PTI

THE BATTLE for Mumbai and the Konkan has begun. On Sunday, within shouting distance of the Shiv Sena's headquarters, its latest hate object, Narayan Rane, threw down the gauntlet. "I can match your tactics," he said in effect. "I can expose you," he threatened. "And I will win," he seemed to convey.

On Monday, at the crowded press conference where he announced his decision to join the Congress, the former Shiv Sainik and until recently Leader of the Opposition in the Maharashtra Assembly, exuded confidence. Hundreds of his followers, all Shiv Sainiks, cheered, clapped, and laughed at his jokes. "All Konkan will go with Rane," said one of the enthusiastic onlookers when asked what impact Mr. Rane's joining the Congress would have. Why? "Because," said the young man, "he has done a lot for our area."

Fierce battles likely

The Sena has already announced that Raj Thackeray will tour the Konkan and address meetings in Raigad, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg in early August. Significantly, the Sena is sending Bal Thackeray's nephew instead of his son. The former, a Bal Thackeray clone, has the ability to draw crowds; the latter only brings in the loyalists. In this battle for the hearts and minds of the Konkanis, Mr. Raj Thackeray is better equipped. With Mr. Rane also expected to tour the Konkan following his formal induction into the Congress on July 28, the region is likely to see fierce battles between the Sena and Rane loyalists of the kind already witnessed in Mumbai on Sunday.

So far, none of the nine Shiv Sena MLAs who pledged their allegiance to Mr. Rane has resigned from the party. Nor have they been expelled. They obeyed the party whip during the monsoon session of the Assembly, thereby avoiding disqualification. If in the near future all of them do resign and follow Mr. Rane, the State could face the prospect of a mini-test of strength between the Sena and the Congress within six months. In the meantime, though, the real test of Mr. Rane's following will come when his Sainiks choose the Congress over the Sena. So far, the list of individuals who have declared their intent to do so is unimpressive but he promises that his followers will join the Congress in droves once he has been formally inducted. The decline in the Sena's electoral fortunes in recent years, coupled with Uddhav Thackeray's lacklustre leadership that Mr. Rane has confronted directly, could well lead to a substantial number of Sainiks following Mr. Rane.

What will Rane bring to the Congress? The culture of the Sena and its street tactics, in which Mr. Rane excels, are alien to the Congress. When asked this question at the press conference, Mr. Rane chose to make a joke out of it. "Culture can also change little by little," he said. It is unlikely that the Congress leaders who shared the platform with him found this amusing.

Clearly, the decision to woo Mr. Rane has been taken by the Congress with a view to gain in the Konkan as also to put an obstacle in the advance of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in the region. For, while the Congress is confident that it has enhanced its hold over Mumbai by making a virtual clean sweep in the Lok Sabha elections and putting up a credible performance in the Assembly elections, the one area where it has practically no presence today is the Konkan. Although the region does not yield much by way of seats either to Parliament or to the State Assembly, it has a psychological significance because of its link to Mumbai. The Sena consolidated its base in Mumbai in areas dominated by migrants from the Konkan. Conversely, it used this to expand its base to the Konkan.

Why did Mr. Rane choose the Congress rather than the NCP? After his expulsion from the Shiv Sena, there was considerable speculation that Mr. Rane might veer towards the NCP because he would have a greater chance to shine in a smaller pond rather than in a vast national party such as the Congress. But on the ground, in Mr. Rane's bastion of Sindhudurg, there is no love lost between the Shiv Sena and the NCP. On the contrary, the cadres of the two parties are literally at daggers drawn with murder, arson and beatings part of the political dogfight.

In the last few years since its formation, the NCP has been specifically targeting the Konkan and the results have begun to show. For instance, the rebel Sena candidate from Chiplun, Bhaskar Jadhav, joined the NCP recently. Barring Sindhudurg, in several Konkan constituencies, the NCP has made headway winning four seats in the last Assembly elections, second only to the Shiv Sena, which won nine. Now the Rane factor might just stop its advance and give the Congress a chance to enhance its base in the region.

Essentially, Mr. Rane's usefulness to the Congress lies in his ability to deliver a few more seats into its basket. Since the Assembly elections, the local Congress leadership is still chafing at having to accept the NCP as the senior partner in the alliance. Congressmen are aware that the NCP is working steadily to increase its base in the State with an eye to the future. They also know that there are no permanent friends in politics.

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