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The succession in the House of Saud

Gulshan Dietl

The Saudi monarchy is vulnerable to the harsh political winds blowing in the region.

SAUDI ARABIA can rightfully lay claim to two unique features: it sits over more than a quarter of the global oil reserves, and it hosts the two holiest Muslim shrines in Mecca and Medina.

There is a third unique distinction the country does not loudly proclaim. Al-Mamalik al-Arabiyya as-Saudiyya is the only country in the world named after its ruling dynasty, whose King Fahd died on Monday. Crown Prince Abdullah is the new king.

In 1744 Muhammad al-Saud entered into a covenant with Muhammad Abdel Wahhab, a religious leader and propagator. Saud agreed to devote his sword to the cause of Islam and Wahhab consented to guide him along the right path.

In 1901, the foundation of the state of Saudi Arabia was laid by Abdel Aziz al-Saud, and in 1932, the process was finally completed with the proclamation of the state in its present form.

The present Saudi royal family includes not just the children of Abdel Aziz, which includes 35 living sons and an unknown number of daughters, but also their sons and grandsons, and the descendants of the allied branches of the extended clan. The clan is estimated to number anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 men, of whom 200 to 300 are active in the government. The princes hold the important ministerial portfolios and the governorships of the provinces.

After Abdel Aziz, the succession in the family has been horizontal — the Crown passing from brother to brother. Behind this form of succession lies an accident of history. Abdel Aziz's first son died young; Saud was the second son and Faisal the third. Abdel Aziz spotted his rightful successor in Faisal and roped him into the government system and the diplomatic missions from the age of 14. Saud, however, could not be bypassed and, therefore, when he was declared Wali al-Ahd or Crown Prince, a simultaneous declaration was made that Faisal was to succeed him. Faisal ruled from 1964 to 1975.

King Khalid reigned thereafter, but it was Crown Prince Fahd who ruled. Even if one only counts the years that he was officially the King, that is, from 1982, his death marks the end of a long eventful era. The petro-dollar generated affluence, the revolution in Iran, the capture of the Mecca osque by radical Saudis, the Iran-Iraq war, the war on Afghanistan and the war on Iraq. And the ongoing perpetual war on terror. Fahd steered his country through it all. It was Fahd who proposed the "Fahd Peace Plan," the first ever indication of an Arab acquiescence to implicitly recognise Israel's right to live in peace. And it was he who proclaimed the "Saudi Basic Law" and assembled an appointed parliament.

Identifiable factions

Within the royal family, there are a few identifiable factions. Each faction competes for supremacy on the basis of its numerical strength, political weight, and closeness to the ruling monarch. Fahd headed the most formidable of these — the Sudairis. They are popularly called the "Sudairi Seven," who have captured powerful positions in the Government. The Sudairis, united against the others, have not been free of petty feuds among themselves.

Abdullah, the incoming king, has been seen as an anti-thesis of the Sudairis. His mother belonged to the Shammar tribe in the north of the country, and he retains a very strong base among the tribes there. He has a reputation for austerity and integrity. And if Fahd ruled while Khalid reigned, Abdullah has officially served as "Acting King." Without abdicating, Fahd had handed over the running of the country to him for a brief spell in the mid-1990s as he was recovering from an illness.

To that extent, Abdullah has been the de facto ruler for a decade already. His performance in that period should provide the best guide to his policies in the coming years. Domestically, he has allowed greater freedom to criticise, question and publish memoranda and petitions for change and reform. He has conducted several high-profile "National Dialogues" with invited leaders of Saudi society. The country recently completed an extended exercise in elections at the municipal level, which have been free and fair.

There have been demands for a constitutional monarchy, accusations of corruption within the centres of power, open defiance and demonstrations, and explosions. In May 2003, there was a series of suicide bombings in Riyadh. Since then, there have been intermittent government claims of having unearthed and destroyed terrorist cells.

In foreign affairs, Abdullah's greatest contribution has been a rapprochement with Iran. He attended the Teheran Summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference in late 1997, and hosted Iranian President Muhammad Khatami two years later. Both these events were the first of their kind since the Iranian Revolution. The two pragmatic rulers have done what they could have to retain a semblance of normalcy. As Abdullah steps in, Khatami is bowing out. Bilateral relations are expected to continue on an even keel, nonetheless.

U.S. role

The United States could still upturn the situation within the country and in its neighbourhood. Since the 9/11 attacks, the Saudis are no longer the closest U.S. allies in the Gulf. In fact, there have been frequent calls for regime change in Saudi Arabia. Separating the oil-rich areas of the country and controlling them directly has also been recommended by the policy-prescribing elite in the U.S. There is close monitoring of the syllabuses taught and the banking transactions done there by the U.S. authorities and a constant hectoring.

Finally, the convention of horizontal succession in the country may prove to be a mixed blessing. Till date, it has served as an inclusive mechanism; it has managed to keep most of the family factions involved and given them all a stake in its sustenance. But it has also translated into succession by men of the same generation. Abdullah is an octogenarian and his rule is bound to be short. Quick successions in turn are bound to encourage and activate the younger aspirants to the throne. The monarchy itself, in the present circumstances, is vulnerable to the harsh political winds blowing in the region.

(The writer is at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.)

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