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All in the family

Kalpana Sharma

Will the patch-up between Uddhav and Raj hold till the 2007 Mumbai municipal elections?

THE MONOLITH that Bal Thackeray assiduously built over 39 years seems to be crumbling before his very eyes. In the last six months, the Shiv Sena seems to have gone into a self-destruct mode. And the best efforts of its founder and leader are not working to stop the decline.

Last weekend's standoff between the party's executive president, Uddhav Thackeray, and his cousin, Raj Thackeray, seemed to epitomise the nature of the struggle. It is an open fight for the throne even before the king abdicates.

The fight between Uddhav and Raj is an old one. It was always simmering and almost came to a boil when Mr. Bal Thackeray indicated his preference for his son over his nephew. Once again, it came close to bursting out in the open last year in the run-up to the Assembly elections when Mr. Uddhav Thackeray had full control over giving ticket and Mr. Raj Thackeray had little say. But in the interests of the larger cause, the elections, scores that had to be settled were set aside.

The failure to secure a majority in the 2004 elections, having already lost in 2000, set in motion the process of disintegration that has not stopped. Present indications would suggest that even Mr. Bal Thackeray's intervention cannot heal the deep divide.

The reasons for the party falling apart at this point are fairly obvious. Although the Sena has held power at the municipal corporation level, its first real taste of power came in 1995 when it won the Maharashtra Assembly elections and formed a government with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Those five years in office in the State, and its presence at the Centre thereafter in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) transformed the nature of the party.

From just one leader, Mr. Bal Thackeray, suddenly others were noticed. One of these was Narayan Rane who took over as Chief Minister from Manohar Joshi on orders from Mr. Bal Thackeray. Others such as Sanjay Nirupam also tasted the prominence that a seat in the Rajya Sabha provides a regional politician. In contrast, the man chosen by Mr. Bal Thackeray to lead the party, Uddhav Thackeray, never contested an election and was not known as a crowd-puller. And although his cousin Raj Thackeray apparently had a better style for public speaking, his drawing power was also never tested in elections.

Mr. Nirupam was the first to rebel when he walked over to the Congress. Mr. Rane followed suit. While the former had built a base among non-Maharashtrians in Mumbai and in eastern Vidarbha, the latter had a loyal following in Sindhudurg in the Konkan. The loss of these two, particularly Mr. Rane, is having a ripple effect on the party. In Mumbai, the majority of Sainiks have links with the Konkan. According to Sena watchers, Mr. Rane's departure will inevitably result in a vertical split in the rank and file. The first indication of this is the decision of one of the leaders of the Bharatiya Kamgar Sena, the trade union wing of the party, Jaywant Parab, to join the Congress. In Vidarbha, over 3,000 of Mr. Nirupam's followers, formally joined the Congress on Thursday.

Command-style not working

It is also clear that Mr. Bal Thackeray's command-style politics, where his wish was the command that his ever-loyal followers accepted without questioning, is not working any more. Not only are prominent Sainiks questioning the leadership, so are the grassroots workers.

Apart from the open dissension in the party, the obvious wealth accumulated by a few leaders is creating negative feelings among the rank and file, say observers. For instance, the Sena opposed sale of the land occupied by defunct textile mills in the heart of Mumbai as a large part of its following consists of former textile workers. Yet a few weeks ago, Mr. Raj Thackeray and Mr. Manohar Joshi's son successfully bid an impressive Rs. 421 crore for one of these mills, the Kohinoor Mills, located across the road from the Sena headquarters at Dadar.

The man who poses the biggest problem for the Sena remains Mr. Rane. He has been travelling extensively across Maharashtra meeting Sena workers. Mr. Raj Thackeray's attempt to hold meetings in Mr. Rane's home ground earlier this month failed as the Sainiks were literally chased out by Mr. Rane's supporters. Even if Shiv Sena MLAs do not resign for fear of losing their seats, the tide of workers moving towards Rane is evident.

Sena watchers are clear that the patch-up between Uddhav and Raj is temporary. Whether it will hold till the 2007 municipal elections in Mumbai, which will be the real test for the party, remains to be seen.

Even if it does, it is clear given the direction the party is taking, that it will face an uphill task to win in the city of its birth.

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