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Tuesday, Aug 30, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Looking for a winning colour combination

Vaiju Naravane

The uncertainty over how voters will behave on September 18 has convinced Germany's two main parties, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, that they have to keep all their options open.

WITH BARELY three weeks to go before a crucial general election, a frantic colours and numbers game is on in Germany. What will be the winning combination on September 18? The largely expected Black-Yellow combine of the Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP)? A repeat of the Red-Green coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party that has run the country these past seven years?

Or will it be a Black-Yellow-Green affair bringing together the conservatives (CDU-CSU), the free market liberals (FDP), and Joschka Fischer's Greens; or a Red-Red-Green one, making querulous bedfellows of the Socialists (SPD), the extreme Leftists (LP), and the Greens? Or has the time finally come for a grand coalition that will see the country jointly governed by its two main political blocs — the Christian Democrats led by East Germany's Angela Merkel, the only woman to have set her cap at the most powerful post of the country, with Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats as a junior partner?

If all this sounds confusing, think nought of it. Germans are used to coalition politics, having known nothing else since the Second World War. Ever since its Constitution was adopted in 1949, Germany has been governed by a series of coalitions spawned by its electoral system that is part proportional, part first-past-the-post. The country's Bundestag or Lower House is made up of 598 deputies, half or 299 of whom are elected by direct vote and the other half through proportional representation. Each German voter thus casts two votes — the first for an individual contesting in his or her constituency (first-past-the-post) and the second for a party list. A 1953 law designed to prevent a splintering of the vote into tiny factions stipulates that a party needs a minimum of five per cent of the vote to be represented in Parliament.

This system worked reasonably well in the post-war Federal Republic when Germany was divided between East and West. The two main contenders then, as now, were the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. The FDP, which donned the mantle of kingmaker, flirted with one or the other to provide the country with political alternatives and stability.

The first change came about with the emergence of the Green Party in the 1980s and after German re-unification in 1990, another strong political force, the reformed former East German communist party, entered the arena. The Party of Democratic Socialism or PDS was recently renamed the Left Party after it joined forces with another leftist formation led by former Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine and other SPD dissidents. Today it has become the third most popular party in the country, a fact that has further complicated an already complex electoral scenario.

The first consequence of these developments has been a more fragmented political chessboard with the three minor parties, the FDP, the Left Party, and the Greens holding the coalition cards. The last opinion poll conducted on August 25 shows the CDU-CSU combine polling an estimated 42 per cent of the vote. The SPD is credited with 31 per cent of the vote. The Greens are likely to win 8 per cent, the FDP 7 per cent, and the Left Party 9 per cent. Who will ally with whom is anybody's guess. Frantic across-the-board discussions are under way. The Christian Democrats have tried to woo the Greens; the Social Democrats have had parleys with both the Left Party and its opposite number, the pro-business FDP. Little wonder then that the Germans are so utterly absorbed in the colours and numbers game.

The early election was engineered by Mr. Schroeder and his closest aides. Mr. Schroeder won the last election in 2002 by a whisker by exploiting the unpopularity of George W. Bush's war on Iraq, portraying himself as an anti-war hero. He also earned precious brownie points for his management of the severe floods that hit Germany three years ago. But since then his popularity has been on a downward slide, especially after he tried to introduce harsh and hugely unpopular structural reforms through a programme called Agenda 2010 that would cut back generous welfare benefits handed out to citizens.

This decline in public confidence was reflected in a string of electoral losses for Mr. Schroeder's SPD across the German lander or States, the last and perhaps the most important being in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous State where the SPD had been in power since 1966. Convinced he was headed for sure electoral defeat in 2006 (when the next legislative election was scheduled), Chancellor Schroeder decided to cut his losses and call for an early election before the opposition became too powerful and defeat a certainty.

There was one hitch, however. Under Germany's Constitution, only the President can call an election and that too if the Government is defeated in a no-confidence vote and the Opposition is unable to muster a majority. So on July 1, Mr. Schroeder tabled a confidence vote, instructing his party MPs to vote against the Government. He could then legitimately ask for a fresh election.

President Koehler took three weeks to call a poll. The legality of the election was challenged in court by two MPs from Mr. Schroeder's own party. The last hurdle was cleared on August 25 when the constitutional court threw out the case and declared the election legal.

Mr. Schroeder's main challenger is the conservative CDU-CSU's official candidate, Angela Merkel, a Thatcherite clone from the former East Germany who has announced an ambitious programme that would hike the VAT from 16 to 18 per cent and cut back social spending in an effort to jumpstart the German economy. "There hasn't been such an honest electoral programme in a long time," Ms. Merkel said launching her campaign.

But given the unpopularity of Mr. Schroeder's fairly innocuous pension and health care cutbacks, the Christian Democrats have muted their aggressive pro-market rhetoric to a whisper. With a predicted 42 per cent of the vote, the CDU-CSU conservative grouping could hope to form a government if, and it is a very big if, its preferred coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP), notched up a big vote tally. That now looks increasingly unlikely as opposition to anything that smacks of an attack on the welfare system appears to be spreading.

East-West divide

Since re-unification, Germany's national debt has spiralled out of control, topping 1.4 trillion Euros. Unemployment too has grown exponentially with 11 per cent of the country's active population out of work. Hardest hit, with unemployment figures over 20 per cent, is former East Germany, which mops up the major chunk of the government's social spending. This has given rise to a sharp East-West divide between the Ossis and the Wessis with the westerners complaining about the subsidies and handouts that go to the easterner Ossis of which they, the Wessis, fork out the lion's share.

This resentment on the part of the west towards the east was vociferously articulated recently by Edmond Stoiber, leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's sister party, when he declared: "I do not accept that the east will again decide who will be Germany's chancellor. The `frustrated' cannot be allowed to determine Germany's fate."

The attack was partly aimed at Ms. Merkel herself who hails from the east and has underlined the differences that exist within the conservative camp. Her response to Mr. Stoiber's poisoned rhetoric was swift and cutting: "Insulting voters is the wrong thing to do and something we do not want."

Mr. Stoiber's remarks may have been prompted by personal frustration and bitterness. In the election three years ago where he faced Mr. Schroeder, the latter beat him with the help of eastern voters and the Bavarian leader has not been able to swallow his humiliation. His half-hearted apology did not convince the public and the damage could not be undone. Mr. Schroeder described Mr. Stoiber's remarks as "the height of tastelessness" and the press pilloried him for his lack of sensitivity.

Disunity within conservative ranks could seriously undermine Ms. Merkel's chances. The rumpus has given the Left Party a boost and the past week has seen a surge in its ratings, especially amongst disgruntled eastern voters. Amongst the three minor parties, the fate of the Free Democrats will be most keenly watched. The backlash against globalisation and free market policies which resulted in a French "No" to the European Constitution has focussed attention on questions such as workers' rights and job security. The FDP's pro-business stance might win it votes among the professionals but not among the working classes. It could see its electoral base narrow in this election.

The uncertainty over how voters will behave on September 18 has convinced the two main parties they have to keep all their options open and they are taking no risks, dialoguing with each other and with the smaller parties exploring avenues for possible partnerships.

The possibility of a Grand Coalition between the two elephants — the CDU-CSU and the SPD — cannot therefore be ruled out. But observers say this will lead to deadlock and little progress on fiscal and structural reforms that most economists agree Germany badly needs. If that happens, Germans could well be facing another general election a couple of years down the line.

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