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Will the draft Iraqi constitution succeed?

Rory Carroll

NOBODY SAID drafting Iraq's constitution would be easy. And nobody said Sunday's result was destined to succeed. But it was a result.

Two years after the United States military's "shock and awe" over Baghdad, seven months after the election, two months after talks began in earnest, here was a document which sought to define Iraq. Distilled into 49 pages was an attempt to reconcile often conflicting interests and dreams of Shias, Kurds, Arab Sunnis and other minorities.

If rejected in a referendum in October it will be binned and forgotten. If passed, it could, Iraqi officials hope, be a building block for peace and stability and a model for the Middle East. Sunni negotiators rejected the draft and urged a no-vote, a call which the Government admitted could torpedo the constitution.

Whether Iraq's draft will succeed, however, hinges on its reception by the country's main ethnic and sectarian groups. Five million copies will be printed and distributed over the next six weeks.

Some details of the final version signed on Sunday were not immediately available, but most of the draft became public last week. It brings matters up to date by invoking the shared suffering of all groups under Saddam Hussein and promising a gentler, more tolerant society. "We, the Iraqi people now rising from suppression and looking forward to a future in a republican, federal, democratic and pluralist system, have made a pact to respect the rule of law, reject the politics of aggression, give attention to the rights of women, men and children, spread the culture of diversity, and uproot terrorism."

Fine sentiments aside, what Iraqis will study closely is the wording of provisions on federalism, oil distribution, de-Ba'athification and the role of Islam. Federalism — decentralising power from Baghdad to the regions — was variously described as the "mother" or "monster" issue which dogged negotiations.

Article 114 states: "The regions comprise one province or more, and two regions or more have the right to join into one region." This suggests any of Iraq's 18 provinces can band together.

It was expected that Kurds would retain the autonomy they have enjoyed since the 1991 Gulf war. Some Shias, who comprise 60 per cent of the 26 million population, want to mirror that with a Shia region in the oil-rich south.

To Sunni Arabs that was a recipe for Iranian meddling, ending Iraq's chances of once again being a great Arab power. It could also marginalise Sunnis in Iraq's oil-free, dustbowl centre.

Over the weekend Kurds and Shias amended the draft, said a government spokesman, so that provinces had to wait six months after the next Parliament before seeking to form regions. With elections due in December that delays any such move by Shias until June next year, by which time Sunnis might be in a stronger position to block it. The concession was enough to win over some but not all Sunnis.

Another sticking point was Article 7: "Entities or trends that advocate, instigate, justify or propagate racism, terrorism, takfir (declaring someone an infidel), sectarian cleansing, are banned, especially the Saddamist Ba'ath party in Iraq and its symbols, under any name." Sunnis, many of whom served the former regime, feared this would leave them open to purges.

Article 151 reserves a quarter of Parliament's seats for women, but some secular groups said that was little consolation.

Some women's rights groups fear that Article 2, which says "no law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam," will open the door to Iranian-style theocracy.

American diplomats said women would be protected by other articles enshrining human rights. But it was not clear if these would trump Islam.

Nobody was bombastic enough to call Sunday's document the birth of a nation. If it passes the referendum, the draft will picked over by the next Parliament. Many ordinary Iraqis say security, electricity and clean water are more urgent than a new constitution. Whether it is a historic document or an irrelevant abstraction will be decided by them in October. —

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

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